OPEC Friday trimmed forecasts of demand for its own crude over economic concerns and rising output by rivals, a move that makes it likely to significantly cut production next year.
OPEC Friday trimmed forecasts of demand for its own crude over economic
concerns and rising output by rivals, a move that makes it likely to
significantly cut production next year.
The downgrade, the second such revision in as many days, suggests Gulf
producers will be pressured to tighten their spigots when the group meets on
Dec. 12 in
Vienna
.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly oil
market report that demand for its crude will be about 100,000 barrels a day
less than expected next year. While markets will need more oil overall, they
will require about 400,000 barrels a day less from the group itself next
year--an amount nearly equivalent to the production of OPEC's smallest member
Ecuador
.
Part of the downgrade stems from lingering economic concerns, which also led
OPEC to cut its global oil demand forecast for 2013 by about 20,000 barrels a
day to 89.57 million barrels a day--though still up about 1% from this year. "The
economy is placing a considerable amount of uncertainty on the world oil demand
forecast," the group warned.
But the group, whose members extract more than one in three barrels of oil
consumed each day in the world, is also facing mounting competition from new
barrels coming from outside the group. The organization upgraded non-OPEC
production estimates for next year, mostly due to revised expectations for
Australian output.
On Thursday, OPEC trimmed a demand forecast for its crude by 1.6 million
barrels a day through 2015, as part of a broader downgrade by one million
barrels a day for global oil demand in the medium term.
The numbers are likely to inspire some soul searching at OPEC's meeting next
month. Though no change is expected for its current production ceiling of 30
million barrels a day, some members could seize on the latest figures to put
pressure on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries that have ramped up production
to make up for lost Iranian output.
OPEC's output is already easing, but it is still producing more than the market
needs for next year. Expected demand for OPEC crude next year stands at 29.7
million barrels a day. The group said its output fell by 66,900 barrels a day
in October to 30.95 million barrels a day, the first time in a year it fell
below 31 million barrels a day. The numbers, based on secondary sources such as
shipping and oil consultancies, were driven down by lower Iranian and Nigerian
output.
Iranian output dropped by to about 47,000 barrels a day, OPEC's secondary
sources said, continuing to decline as strict sanctions designed to deter the
Islamic Republic from pursuing its nuclear program hit its oil industry.
Iran
denies a sharp decline in output and pegs it at 3.74 million barrels a
day--more than one million barrels a day higher than secondary sources.
OPEC output was also hit by
Nigeria
, down
about 109,000 barrels a day due to flooding in the Niger Delta and sabotage
targeting oil pipelines.
But
Saudi Arabia
's
output remains close to its highest level in at least three decades at 9.7
million barrels a day, according to OPEC's secondary sources.
Markets will now be watching out for the oil-market predictions of the International
Energy Agency, which represents some of the world's largest oil consumers,
which are due next week.
Διαβάστε ακόμα
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:58
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:54
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:32
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:27
Τρι, 17 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 20:01