Any slowdown in the economic recovery may upset an expected balance in the oil market for the second half of this year, OPEC said in a report Tuesday as it slightly downgraded its global oil-demand growth views.
Any slowdown in the economic recovery may upset an expected balance in
the oil market for the second half of this year, OPEC said in a report Tuesday
as it slightly downgraded its global oil-demand growth views.
But the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned that the
predicted balance could be threatened if a strong hurricane season in the
U.S.
disrupted production.
In its monthly oil-market report for June, OPEC--members of which produce more
than one in three barrels of oil consumed each day in the world--said
"uncertainties on both the demand and supply side have the potential to
undermine the expected market balance in the second half of 2013."
Amid lingering economic uncertainty, OPEC marginally cut its global oil-demand growth
forecast for 2013 by 10,000 barrels a day from last month's report. But demand
for the commodity will still grow by about 780,000 barrels a day this year, it
said.
OPEC warned that "risks are skewed towards the downside" for demand. "This
is due largely to the weak economic outlook for
Europe
, as
well as to any possible setbacks in the
U.S.
economic recovery," it added.
OPEC also pointed out that the use of fuel oil in
Japan
has
recently weakened mainly due to it being replaced with natural gas and coal. It
added that the threat from a slowdown in economic growth also existed in
developing countries, which have been consuming more barrels of oil in recent
years.
But the group also said there was a risk markets wouldn't get as much as oil as
expected if
U.S.
production is heavily hit by hurricanes. Due to a boost in non-conventional
production, the
U.S.
will
pump nearly two-thirds of the additional 1 million barrels a day coming from
non-OPEC producers this year, according to the organization.
But the "risks remain on the high side for the
U.S.
supply forecast," OPEC said. "The official forecast expects an
'active or extremely active' hurricane season this year, which could impact
production in the coming period," it said.
While the
U.S.
remains vulnerable to oil disruptions in its offshore, it's expected to
increasingly rely on resources trapped in the rock onshore. A report released
by the
U.S.
government Monday showed 10% of the world's recoverable crude-oil resources may
be held in shale formations in the
U.S.
and
elsewhere.
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