Japan's demand for imported natural gas, which ballooned after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, is falling-- and may deflate a lot further if the government succeeds in getting dozens of idled nuclear reactors restarted.
Japan
's
demand for imported natural gas, which ballooned after the 2011 Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear disaster, is falling-- and may deflate a lot further if the
government succeeds in getting dozens of idled nuclear reactors restarted.
Imports of liquefied natural gas in the first half of 2013 were down 2.7% to
43.4 million tons, the first half-yearly decline since the nuclear accident
more than two years ago, the ministry of finance reported Wednesday. Last year
imports were up 11%, to 87.3 million tons, after a 12% rise in 2011. The
reversal of the trend is bad news for companies developing or planning LNG
export facilities in locations as varied as
Australia
,
Russia
,
East
Africa
or
North America
.
Japan
is
the world's top LNG importer.
But bad news for gas producers could be good news for coal miners in those same
regions. With all but two of 50 licensed reactors idle, what's currently
capping Japan's use of imported LNG-- which has been generating 40% of its
electricity-- is in part heavier use of coal. Utilities have repaired some
earthquake-damaged coal-fired power plants and built new ones that can produce
electricity more cheaply than gas-fired plants. In April, Tokyo Electric Power
Co., operator of the
Fukushima
reactors, started making electricity at two new coal-fired 1.6-gigawatt power
stations. Tohoku Electric Power Co. has restarted two coal units with a
combined two gigawatts of capacity since late last year.
The chief executive of one of Australia's largest miners, Whitehaven Coal Ltd.,
said recently he is targeting Japan over big buyer China for future thermal-coal
sales because Japan's tight environmental controls means demand for
high-quality, less-polluting Australian coal over cheaper varieties from
elsewhere.
"LNG demand may not fall sharply," said Tomomichi Akuta, analyst at
Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, "but it won't rise any further
even if nuclear power doesn't come back soon."
What could turn the slippage in demand into a real tumble would be the
realization of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's enthusiasm for restarting
reactors.
"It depends on when and how many reactors the authorities approve,"
said Hidetoshi Shioda, analyst of SMBC Nikko Securities.
Japan
's
Institute
of
Energy
Economics
, a think tank, last year
forecast that restarting 26 reactors would cut LNG demand 8.8% the following
year. Utilities have asked
Japan
's
Nuclear Regulation Authority to clear an initial 12 reactors for restart, on
the grounds they meet new safety regulations.
But there are hurdles, including public hostility. Pro-nuclear Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe may be flying high, coming off a big election win Sunday for his
ruling party, but he hasn't managed to overcome the resistance to nuclear
power. A poll by Asahi newspaper a week ago showed 58% opposition to restarting
any reactors.
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