Revenue from petroleum exports in the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries broke a new record in 2012 but the earnings of some
members are declining amid higher budgetary needs, underscoring a
deepening rift between producers benefiting from higher oil prices and
those who don't.
Mounting inequalities within OPEC come ahead of an expected
debate later this year over whether it should formally cut its
production for the first time in five years.
In its annual statistical report, OPEC said its oil exports
revenue, which include crude, natural-gas liquids and products, rose by
9.2% to $1.261 trillion in 2012, compared to a previous record of $1.155
trillion the previous year.
Gulf Arab monarchies took advantage of higher oil prices and
of a gap left by Iranian sales hit by sanctions. While Saudi oil revenue
rose by 6%, Iran's earnings from the commodity fell by 12%.
But others have also been hurt by new competition from booming
U.S. oil shale. Algeria's oil-export revenue fell by 6% as the price of
its flagship Saharan Blend crude fell by 1.3% in 2012 amid weakening
U.S. demand. The drop in revenue also stemmed from lower sales of its
profitable products amid refining problems.
The lower exports earnings affect members that can least
afford it. In a closely-watched analysis, the Arab Petroleum Investments
Corp., or Apicorp, which was set up by Arab oil producers, said the oil
price Iran needs to balance its budget has risen to $144 a barrel this
year from $127 in 2012. By contrast, Saudi Arabia's break-even price has
only increased from $94 per barrel in 2012 to $98 in 2013.
Algeria, which has been rattled by frequent riots over food
and housing, needs an oil price of $121 a barrel to cover its planned
domestic expenditure, according to the International Monetary Fund.
That's higher that the average price of $107.9 a barrel in the first six
months of 2013 for Brent, the most widely used international oil
benchmark.
The difference in budgetary needs between members "casts
doubts on the ability of OPEC to act as a group of peers," wrote Ali
Aissaoui, the senior consultant at APICORP who authored the study.
"Countries whose fiscal costs are higher than the market price would try
and persuade the opposite side to lower the aggregate production
ceiling."
OPEC currently has a production ceiling of 30 million barrels a
day, although delegates of the group have suggested it could be cut
because forecasts show lower needs for its crude next year.
Following unrest that have toppled or threatened several
long-term leaders in the Arab world, most governments in the Middle East
and Africa have sharply increased their social spending.