Russia, which has called
for dialogue to tackle the political rift in the Arab world over Qatar, will
not take sides in the conflict between Doha and its neighbours,
Chris
Weafer, a partner at Macro-Advisory told New Europe in Moscow. "It
doesn’t need to. But I understand it has let it be known it is available to
host mediation talks if asked by both sides,” he said.
Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain have imposed measures to isolate Qatar,
accusing Doha of supporting terrorism. Doha denies the accusation.
Qatar is a major producer
of natural gas and the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
"Since the west imposed
sanctions and Beijing was cool to the China-pivot in 2014, the Kremlin has
pursued a diversification strategy in both trade and politics,” Weafer said,
adding that this is one of the main reasons Russian President
Vladimir
Putin twisted Rosneft President
Igor Sechin‘s arm to
cooperate with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) deal
last November.
Sechin, who is the chief
executive officer of Russia’s biggest oil producer, initially opposed the deal
but has since become a supporter, Weafer said, explaining that the Rosneft CEO
changed his mind "since Rosneft made a lot of money because of it”.
"For Putin the OPEC deal is
both good politics and good economics. The latter because Russia has earned
$2.25 billion more per month over the past six months with the average price at
$54 per barrel than it would have with a $45 per barrel average,” Weafer said.
"The former because the Arab states have not criticised Moscow’s involvement in
Syria since the November deal was announced,” the partner at the Moscow-based
consultancy added.
"Moscow is in a sort of
sweet-spot in the Middle-East right now. It has finally achieved good relations
with Riyadh, after two and a half decades of antagonism. Qatar is a major
investor in Rosneft and Abu Dhabi is a big investor in the Russian economy,”
Weafer said. "In addition it has better relations with Iran and Turkey than any
western state and is close to both the Egyptian government and the faction
controlling the oil provinces in eastern Libya. It also counts Israel as an
ally,” he said, stressing that "it would be an act of great foolishness to now
take sides and risk current friendships and tolerances”.
"Realistically the only way
for Qatar to pipe its gas to Europe is either across Saudi and Egypt –
obviously never going to happen – or across Iran and Turkey – Iran would never
agree to that – or via Iraq-Syria. Moscow would block that,” he said.
According to Weafer,
Qatar’s past, present and future role in gas is in LNG plus the Dolphin
pipeline, which links Qatar’s giant North Field with the UAE and Oman, "to fuel
the power plants that keep Dubai’s lights on”.
Qatar said earlier in June
it has no plan to shut the Dolphin pipeline that pumps around 2 billion cubic
feet of gas per day to the UAE.
Qatar’s state-owned
Mubadala Development Company owns 51% of Dolphin, while French oil giant Total
and Houston-based Occidental each have 24.5%.
Meanwhile, Weafer said he
expects the Russian oil companies to be less compliant with the OPEC deal
extension as the price has slipped below $48 and US Shale is gaining market
share.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/russia-takes-pass-qatar-conflict-arab-neighbours/