Since the
announcement of a White House meeting for Greek PM Alexis Tsipras last July,
issued by the Office of Vice President Pence, observers have been trying to fathom
a compelling purpose for such a meeting. We now have a time frame for the
meeting with President Trump in Washington, sometime in mid-October (October 17
is rumored), and this timing explains why PM Tsipras skipped his normal New
York UN General Assembly visit last month.
Certainly
in Athens and possibly elsewhere in Europe, observers are asking “where’s the
beef?” since there is very little of true urgency driving this meeting, and
because any contact with senior US leadership is automatically translated into
a major political lifeline for whichever Greek government is involved. In the
last few days much has been made about the protocol aspects of the visit,
including the fact that space has been found at the Blair House in Washington
for PM Tsipras to utilize during his Washington stay.
More
details will emerge in the coming days as the Greek government’s media machine
engages in the standard pre-visit build up, and as Washington officials release
select pieces of the puzzle. Let us review what we know today about potential
discussion topics and themes. Remember that this visit would normally have been
processed through the State Department and National Security Council (NSC), as
the standard process involves the State Department forwarding the NSC a list of
proposed high-level meetings every quarter or so for potential scheduling. This
system may have changed under the Trump Administration and particularly in
Secretary Tillerson’s downsized State Department, but we do know the visit in
principle was announced in July when a host of senior policy positions at State
were still vacant, (a few have since been filled) thus career diplomats at
State clearly played a larger role than Trump Administration political
appointees in getting this visit set up.
Allies managing a tough neighborhood
Regional
issues are the traditionally the bread and butter of these high-level meetings,
and they almost always have been at the top of the agenda, considering Greece’s
strategic location. In fact, it is rare when bilateral issues trump regional
concerns in these Greece – U.S. encounters because there is always something
more urgent festering in Greece’s immediate neighborhood. It appears likely
that the Greece-FYROM name dispute will head the list of discussion topics although
it could just as easily be the regional refugee crisis and concerns with Turkey
or even the Cyprus issue. Time will be found to discuss the Middle East as
well. Both sides will have extensive checklists and presumably both sides will
have their top diplomats there, because the White House meeting presents an
important opportunity to lock-in (or bless) agreed policies. If one had to
hazard a guess, right now the situation in the Balkans and discussions with
FYROM on the Macedonia name issue will be the primary focus of the regional
issues discussion. After the meeting, we should be able to discern how active a
role Washington is willing to take in pushing for a mutually acceptable
solution that allows for the prospect of NATO expansion to include Skopje after
a name issue deal is reached.
It’s all about Souda Bay
The
excellent U.S.-Greece defense relationship leaves very little room for
improvement on an operational basis, save one subject. Both sides have
consistently expressed interest in moving towards an even better arrangement
regarding the strategic Naval Support Facility (NSF) at Souda Bay, Crete. The
U.S. side and the currently-embattled Greek Minister of Defense are interested
in transforming the current Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA) into a
multi-year arrangement to move past the current regime which requires renewal
annually. This allows the U.S. to program new infrastructure upgrades at the
base confidently, boosting regional security and NATO alliance capabilities.
This seems like a clear win-win and incidentally provides Washington an incentive
to quietly support PM Tsipras’ desire to complete his term until elections take
place in 2019. What is needed is the commitment now from PM Tsipras to tackle
his SYRIZA party’s lingering mistrust of U.S. intentions and to get amendments
to the MDCA, or a new deal altogether, through the Greek Parliament. The
prospect of movement on this issue undoubtedly helped secure the Pentagon’s
support to schedule a White House meeting for PM Tsipras. We shall see how far
things progress, and it is also important to note a significant number of
potential U.S. defense sales to Greece are under discussion.
The narrative of Greek economic recovery – is
it believable?
Although
many in Greece dispute this, the Tsipras government and a few allies have been
working hard to share the narrative that “the crisis has ended/economic
recovery is starting” wherever possible. This will certainly be a major topic
at the White House meeting and the key for the Greek side will be whether
President Trump can be convinced to acknowledge this publicly. Hopefully some
of the ideas President Trump has shared about lowering taxes and other reforms
will resonate with PM Tsipras and yield tax relief for the hard-pressed Greek
private sector. It is also interesting to note that the IMF/World Bank Annual
meetings will be underway around the same time (October 13-15) in Washington,
which may allow the Greeks to insert several of their “visiting” economic
ministers into the White House meeting and thus raise the issue of Greek debt
relief directly with President Trump and possibly Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.
That would be an important communications success for PM Tsipras, so we must
monitor closely the official delegation accompanying PM Tsipras to get a hint
at what the Greek side is hoping for. Regional energy issues and the progress
of the (non-American) TAP pipeline construction across northern Greece will
certainly come up in this meeting as well. Finally, one should recall the Greek
media will do their utmost to portray the economic discussions as far more
substantive than they actually are, with suggestions of major new investments
and other benefits. On this topic, it is also worth noting that PM Tsipras has
planned to visit Chicago on his upcoming U.S. trip instead of New York, sending
a somewhat mixed signal about his intentions to pursue the largest American
investors and banks. There is of course a strong case for visiting Chicago, a
city with a large Greek-American population, since an energetic Greek-American
investor (billionaire John Calamos) is based there, as well as the recently
upgraded National Hellenic Museum. Still, New York seems a more important
target if investment promotion and the debt issue are the top Greek objectives.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/searching-meaning-greek-pm-tsipras-planned-washington-visit/