By Kerin Hope
The Athens stock market plunged to a five-year low yesterday (20/01/03) as concern about a possible US-led attack on Iraq intensified Greek investors’ anxiety about the high debt levels of many listed companies.
After slumping 32 per cent in 2002, the general index has lost a further 6 per cent in the first three weeks of the year in thin trading volumes. Many retail investors abandoned the market to put their money in property, while Greek mutual funds suffered from a severe shortage of liquidity.
In a move to calm the market, Nikos Garganas, the central bank governor, this week ended months of speculation by announcing that loans to companies that had used their stock as collateral amounted to 2.3bn euro – a significantly higher figure than analysts had projected.
Greek banks are understood to have launched loan restructuring and refinancing processes for many clients to avert a default. But analysts say accurate figures are hard to obtain because, under Greek accounting rules, banks are not required to make public information about bad and doubtful loans.
“Week reporting and disclosure aren’t necessarily a problem in emerging markets,” says Ioanna Telioudi, head of research at HSBC Pantelakis Securities in Athens. “But Greece became a developed market when it entered the eurozone and investors wanth transparency.”
Listed companies were due to report full-year results for 2002, according to International Accounting Standards. But under pressure from the capital markets committee, the bourse watchog, which argued that companies needed more time to make the switch, the finance ministry agreed to a 12-month postponement.
Share prices of Greek banks, which make up 25 per cent of the index, have fallen as a result.
Analysts point out that EFG Eurobank –a medium sized private bank controlled by the Swiss-based Latsis Group that already reports according to IAS- presently has a higher market capitalisation than National Bank of Greece, the country;s biggest financial group.
With household borrowing still far below the European Union average, Greek banks have plenty of room for earnings growth. But under IAS they will, for the first time, be required to adjust the value of their bond and share portfolios to reflect current market values and to disclose pension liabilities.
“Bank shares were seen as the bluest of blue chips, and uncertaintly over bank valuations contributes to poor investor sentiment,” says Vassilis Kletsas, managing director of Athens-based Selas Investments.
Analysts rule out a sustained rally while the crisis over Iraq continues. But telecoms stocks look attractive after a sharp fall last year.
OTE, the state-controlled operator, forecasts improved growth in the Balkans after reaching agreement with the Romanian government to increase its stake in Rom Telecom, the state operator, from 35 per cent to 51 per cent. CosmOTE, its mobile arm, has outperformed the market on the back of a strong fourth-quarter increase in subscribers.
Greece’s economic prospects are sound, with GDP growth this year likely to exceed 3.5 per cent. Inflows from European Union structural funds are set to increase as the government races to complete transport projects needed for the 2004 Olympics in Athens.
“As the real economy gathers steam in the run-up to the games, the market has a good chance of staging a recovery,” Mr Kletsas says.
(Financial Times, 21/01/03)