By Kakia Papadopoulou
A new round of tension between Nicosia and Ankara has just started. The question is how far it can go and what are the real motives beneath it.
Turkey threatens Cyprus over oil exploration in eastern Mediterranean, violating the rights of a state which happens to be a full member of the European Union.
However, Turkey’s stance should not be seen through a political lens only. Ankara’s economic interests, given that the Turkish government has performed at least preliminary analysis of the hydrocarbons potential of the waters between the two nations, are others.
Turkey clearly has no legitimate claims to the resources lying to the south of Cyprus and much closer to Egypt. And it knows that. After all, Cyprus is a member of the E U. But the Turkish government believes that below the seabed that separates Turkey from Cyprus, there is a very large supply of oil and gas supply. And the Turkish government does have a legitimate claim there.
Turkey has warned Lebanon and Egypt against carrying out oil and natural gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean under their agreement they signed with Cyprus in this regard, arguing that Turkey and Turkish Cypriots also had a say in the region.
Bearing in mind that the government based in Nicosia that controls the southern portion of the island is internationally recognized as the official government of Cyprus, while Turkey maintains and funds the government of the so-called “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, a national entity that only Turkey recognizes within the international community, the irrational of the claim is obvious.
Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey military intervened the occupied the north of Cyprus.
Turkey went further even last week to threat foreign companies which want to take part in the international concessions organized by the government of Cyprus that should take into consideration” the sensitivity of the situation and will of Turkish Cypriots who are the other founder nation on the island”.
Nicosia plans to open 12 offshore blocks for bidding with a total are covering approximately 27,000 square miles. These blocks will be offered under production sharing agreements that should result in 75% of the revenue going to Cyprus. Additionally, operators are expected to bear all the costs of exploration and will be required to drill within two years of licensing any blocks.
At a presentation in London last November more than 40 companies showed an interest. According to initial estimates following the oil and gas exploration studies conducted by the French petroleum exploration firm Beicip and Norwegian-owned PGS, hydrocarbon deposits are estimated at approximately 8 to 10 billion barrels of oil.
“So while the upcoming tender and the deals with Egypt and Lebanon focus in regions to the south of Cyprus, the real bone of contention lies to the north,” wrote in its weekly review RigLogix, the specialized energy data provider.
By threatening, Ankara tries to deter Cyprus from attracting international companies which will undertake the oil and gas exploration.
“By doing so, Turkey would succeed in crippling Cyprus’ efforts and potentially driving the much smaller island into negotiations that would allow Turkey to gain greater control of the hydrocarbons that lie between the two nations,” RigLogix noted.