The economic costs of signing the Kyoto Protocol in its current form could result in as much as a 37 percent drop in Turkey's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was $148 billion in 2006, reported a paper prepared by the state agency responsible for charting the progress and possible repercussions of projects.
According to the report presented by the State Planning Organization (DPT) to the Parliament commission investigating the matter, by signing the protocol Turkey would be willingly accepting responsibility to undertake certain measures and the repercussions of these measures could cost between 10 to 37 percent of the GDP.
The Kyoto Protocol would see Turkey decrease its carbon emission, while providing the opportunity to increase such emissions to countries like Greece, Norway, Australia and Portugal.
Decreasing emissions:
According to the study, there are two separate international agreements concerning climate change, with one being the Kyoto Protocol and the other the “Climate Change Framework Agreement.” One-hundred-ninety countries and the European Union have signed the second agreement. In 2004, Turkey became a signatory with an alternative status due to its own objections. However, the negotiations concerning this special status have not begun yet.
The DTP report notes that currently there are 167 signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. According to the protocol, Luxemburg needs to cut down its emissions by 28 percent, followed by 21 percent for Germany, 12.5 percent for Britain and 7 percent for the United States.
On the other hand, Greece and Portugal can increase emissions by 27 percent, followed by 1 percent for Norway and 8 percent for Australia.
France only needs to keep its emissions constant to qualify.
While there is nothing definite, Turkey will have to decrease its carbon emissions if it becomes a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol.
Turkey is behind other countries:
The DPT report notes that Turkey is behind many countries in terms of decreasing its carbon emissions.
The per capita per year carbon emission of the United States is around 20 tons, followed by 17 tons for Canada, nine tons for Japan, eight tons for EU countries, seven tons for Poland, five tons for Bulgaria and three tons for Turkey. Turkey comes 75th in per capita carbon emissions, while on a national basis, it comes 22nd.
According to the Kyoto Protocol, eleven of the top 25 carbon emitting countries don't have any liability and three were given some leeway. Those that need to take some action are the United States, European Union, Japan, Canada and Turkey.
Why can it bring liability for Turkey?:
The DPT report shows that Turkey is among the EK-1 countries with the biggest liability according to the Kyoto Protocol. According to the Kyoto Protocol, the EK-1 countries are obliged to decrease their carbon dioxide emissions. Even though Turkey is at the back end of the list of countries with carbon dioxide emission, it will be met with solemn liability from the Kyoto Protocol if it does not debate this issue.
Turkey needs to debate this issue to be able to make it out of the EK-1 countries list. To date, Turkey supports the philosophy that the Kyoto Protocol needs to be prepared but does not agree with the responsibility of her obligations, saying that those obligations are “too big.” Furthermore, China, India, Israel and South Korea do not have such obligations even though their emission rate per GDP is bigger than that of Turkey. There are three different scenarios on the costs of Turkey's siding with the Kyoto Protocol after 2013. If the current conditions are still effective and Turkey signs the protocol committing to the obligations, there will be a serious cost.
According to the Turkish Statistics Institute's (TÜIK) estimates the 223 million tons of carbon dioxide emission in 2004 will reach 615 million tons by 2020 with an increase of 175 percent. From these numbers, a 10 percent decrease in emission will cause a 10 percent decrease in the GDP, while a 40 percent decrease in emission will cause a 37 percent in the GDP.
A new list can be formed:
According to the report by the DPT, a new list can be formed for countries such as Switzerland, Mexico and others including Turkey as a result of meetings at the Kyoto Protocol. It can be changed to limit these countries to a certain obligatory level. If Turkey comes to the point of signing Kyoto without making any commitments, there will be no effects to be seen in economy. According to the report, Turkey should prepare a basic climate change policy to be agreed on for all parties. Moreover, Turkey's position and alternatives need to be drawn in international debates. Whether Turkey will be taking any obligations or not will be decided in the debates. Therefore, priority should be given to debating special conditions.
(Turkish Daily News, 17/04/2007)