It's hardly surprising that Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
forecasts continued steady growth in petroleum demand for decades to
come.
But the oil giant also sees alternative sources
of energy rapidly expanding their share of the market, even if they
require a big push in the form of government subsidies and legislation.
Exxon Mobil, in a report released Monday
looking at the future of its own industry through the year 2030,
predicted energy demand worldwide will grow on average 1.3%, or roughly
one-third again what is used today, to the equivalent of 325 million
barrels of oil a day.
The biggest surge in demand will be seen in
developing nations, which Exxon predicts will hit an annual growth pace
of 2%, or four times that of the rest of the world.
Exxon's forecast sees hydrocarbons - oil,
natural gas and coal - still answering about 80% of the world's energy
demand in 2030.
But it also predicts demand for renewable
sources of energy such as wind, solar, and biofuels will accelerate at
a rapid clip of about 9% a year. But that is still a drop in the
bucket. While alternative fuels currently account for about 0.5% of the
world's energy demand, they will likely rise to only 2% by 2030, the
oil company said.
As for global warming and the effort to stem
carbon dioxide emissions, Exxon reiterated its conviction that
technology and markets will be the strongest tools available.
Meanwhile, the company sees carbon dioxide
emissions rising at a rate of 2% a year, driven mainly by developing
nations' heavy reliance on coal to fuel their expanding industrial
economies. Overall, that will push up carbon dioxide emissions to about
37 billion metric tons a year from 27 billion tons in 2005.
"The energy challenges faced by the world are
undeniable," Exxon Mobil Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said in
a statement accompanying the report. "Economic progress will drive
energy demand, oil and gas will remain indispensable for the
foreseeable future, and a global effort will be required to tackle
greenhouse gas emissions."