ROME (Dow Jones)--The government of Kazakhstan will lose $5 billion from the agreement settling a dispute with top western oil companies over the Kashagan oil field, according to a study to be published Friday by a pressure group.
A new deal with the Eni SpA (E)-led consortium and the Kazakh authorities over Kashagan will leave the Central Asian country $5 billion "worse off than previously," London-based Platform will say in a study, a copy of which was sent to Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
The study, by Platform analyst Greg Muttitt, finds the new terms are worth $3.5 billion to Kazakhstan, but this is "more than" offset by $8.5 billion in lost revenues resulting in a delay to the start of output to 2011.
"Most people in Kazakhstan believe they are better off from this deal than they were last week but they really are not," Muttitt told Dow Jones in a telephone interview.
He said the study assumes peak daily output of 1.5 million barrels of oil will now be pushed back to 2020. Eni said last February said the field's production will plateau by 2019.
The consortium that develops Kashagan earlier this week agreed state-owned oil company KazMunaiGas' stake be increased to 16.8% from 8.3% following talks that started last summer. KMG will pay $1.78 billion for the stake, a figure considered below its market value.
The other big shareholders - Eni, ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Total SA (TOT) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB) - will also each hold 16.8%, down from 18.5%. The remaining two shareholders, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Inpex Holdings Inc. (1605.TO), will also see their stakes diminish.
The oil companies reportedly agreed to make a payment to Kazakhstan of between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion, depending on the price of oil.
The new accord also pushed back the start date of output at the project to 2011 from 2010. The original date for production to begin was 2005.
Kashagan, situated on the Kazakh side of the Caspian Sea, is estimated to hold recoverable oil reserves of 13 billion barrels. It was the biggest oil discovery in 30 years when it was found.
Eni Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni said Tuesday the agreement was "fair."