Serbs face a choice between a nationalist who leans toward Russia and a liberal favoring the West in a presidential election runoff next month. Both candidates oppose independence for the breakaway province of Kosovo, expected to be declared soon after the second round vote with the backing of the West.
Nationalist challenger Tomislav Nikolic took 40 percent in Sunday’s first round, according to final results, ahead of 35.4 percent for pro-Western President Boris Tadic.
The two men will compete in a February 3 runoff, a repeat of the 2004 race which Tadic won with 53.2 percent.
Analysts said Sunday’s 61 percent turnout – strong by Serb standards and the highest since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 – showed how seriously people took the vote. Turnout could be even higher on February 3.
The second round will require a “maximum mobilization by both candidates,” analyst Zoran Stojiljkovic told Belgrade daily Danas. “We can expect a tight race and a decision in a photo-finish, with Tadic having only a slight lead.” Tadic has warned of dark days if Nikolic wins and in effect has the backing of the European Union, which yesterday said it was “confident that Serbia will continue to pursue its European course.” “Serbs will have to choose between two concepts, for Europe or against it,” Tadic said yesterday. “There is no third way.”
Nikolic denies accusations of isolationism and warmongering. He is lukewarm toward EU membership and argues that Serbia can steer a middle course between the bloc and Russia, Serbia’s only ally in seeking to stop the loss of Kosovo. “Serbia voted today for both Europe and Russia,” he told state broadcaster RTS. “The road to Russia is at this moment more open, and I’ll open the road to the European Union.”
Nikolic’s poll figures show he courted some moderate voters successfully. But some saw his restraint as short-lived. “Nikolic would be an utterly bad option,” said Andjelko Milardovic of Croatia’s Center for Political Studies. “The fact that he has renounced the Greater Serbia idea is a marketing ploy, to deflect criticism from the West.”
To win the second round, the candidates must also attract third-party votes with promises of growth and jobs, as well as promising to keep Kosovo.
Tadic strongly backs joining the EU, despite most EU members and Washington planning to recognize Kosovo within months.
In the runoff, analysts think supporters of pro-Western candidate Cedomir Jovanovic will vote for Tadic, while Nikolic would pick up roughly the same share of the vote from Milutin Mrkonjic, a candidate of Milosevic’s once-mighty Socialist Party. The outcome could well be in the hands of nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, backer of third-placed Velimir Ilic. Kostunica is Tadic’s partner in Serbia’s fragile coalition government but favors a hard line against the EU over Kosovo and is keen on closer political and economic ties with Moscow. “Kostunica is again in a position to decide the fate of the country,” analyst Milan Nikolic said.
European integration of ‘vital importance’ says Serb FM
Serbia must stay committed to forging closer ties with the European Union to avoid “dangerous living” in the Balkans, the country’s foreign minister said yesterday, following talks with his Greek counterpart Dora Bakoyannis. Vuk Jeremic said it was of “vital importance” that Serbia remain on course for EU integration. “I think this is probably the only way to avoid a situation in which the year 2008 ends up being the year of dangerous living in our part of the world,” he said.
“The most critical decision that Serbia is going to be making in the next few weeks is strategically which path to take,” Jeremic said.