Russia's likely next leader, Dmitry Medvedev, may well soften Moscow's bare-knuckle approach to international relations, but don't expect the Russian bear to go cuddly, analysts said Friday.
Medvedev is all but sure to win a March 2 election to take over from his mentor President Vladimir Putin.
As head of natural gas monopoly OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) and a government bureaucrat specializing in social issues, Medvedev has revealed almost nothing about his views on international issues where Russia plays a key role, ranging from Iran to Kosovo.
But early indications are that he will back off from ex-KGB Putin's combative world view which paints Russia as surrounded by enemies.
In his first major speech as a presidential candidate Medvedev last week said that Russia had to do more to ease tensions.
"Why do they fear us? The answer in my opinion is banal: in part it is simply not clear to them where Russia is going," he said.
"All these fears persist today and we must continue to explain our plans openly and clearly."
Analysts say the fact Medvedev, 42, was never in the KGB is crucial, given the dominance of security service veterans over domestic and foreign policy during Putin's eight-year presidency.
"All we know for sure is that he wasn't in the special services. This doesn't mean he's pro- or anti-Western, but it means he has a different mindset," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
In the last year Putin has sent strategic nuclear bombers back on Cold War-style patrols, dispatched the navy to the Mediterranean for the first time since the Soviet collapse, and accused Western governments of using Russia's tiny pro-democracy opposition as agents.
Putin's harsh, sometimes inflammatory tone, as well as a string of spy scandals, have helped plunge relations between Moscow and London into crisis, soured ties with Washington and sown mistrust in the European Union.
This week two noted liberals in Putin's entourage caught attention by questioning Putin's tough stance.
"We have to ask what the price is of Russia's combative policy," said Anatoly Chubais, a Kremlin insider and influential boss of the state electricity company.
There are signs of change. An agreement Thursday to set up high level U.S.-Russian economic talks later this year was seen as a positive step in a relationship marred by disputes over arms treaties and the state of democracy in Russia.
But Medvedev's record as chairman of Gazprom, a notoriously hard-nosed and politicized monopoly, hardly suggests he will seek to curry Western favors.
"Medvedev is a manager, not a security services man, and that in theory means he won't be a hard-liner," said Viktor Kremenyuk, at the USA-Canada Institute in Moscow.
"But our top managers learn to defend their interests and they're ready to do that by any means, even if this means harming relations with the West."
At the annual May 9 victory parade this year -- right around the time that Putin steps down and Medvedev will probably be sworn in -- intercontinental nuclear missiles and other major hardware will rumble across Red Square for the first time in 17 years.