The Public Power Corporation (PPC) can expect to pay up to 2.2 billion euros a year for carbon emission licences under the EU's revised Emissions Trading Scheme unless it shifts away from its dependence on lignite and other coal-based fuels, according to a former president of the Regulatory Authority for Energy.
Pantelis Kapros, who between 1999 and 2004 was president of the authority that considers the country's energy proposals and reports to the development ministry, told the Athens News that consumers could expect a rise in electricity bills of around 45 percent by 2013.
Under the revamped European Commission energy package - currently being discussed at a European Parliament level but expected to be passed with little resistance - emissions allowances now given to energy producers for free or for small supplementary fees will from that date be auctioned.
"What the PPC currently pays in yearly supplementary allowances of 50 to 100 million euros will become between 2bn and 2.2bn euros a year unless it changes its fuel mix," said Kapros, who is now a professor at the Athens Polytechnic.
"If the PPC - and the electricity sector in general - uses more natural gas and renewable energy sources, then these payments could go down by as much as a billion euros."
He warned, however, that despite a report by the National Power Strategy Council on longterm energy strategy to be presented to the development ministry in the coming weeks, the PPC remains dangerously exposed.
"The point is that [the PPC needs] a very well-conceived plan for development now, and that does not exist at all," said Kapros.
Old technology, new doubts
Of the anticipated entry to the national grid of 2,270MW's worth of energy from natural-gas-fired plants by 2013, PPC's share is projected to be only 440MW. Added to that, a joint venture with steel-producer Halyvourgiki to create two cogeneration gas-fired plants in Elefsina, western Attica, with a total generating capacity of 880MW is in doubt due to opposition on environmental grounds from municipalities in the heavily industrial region.
At the same time, plants burning imported black coal totalling 2,360MW are scheduled to become operational by the same date, of which PPC's contribution is expected to be a 700MW plant in Aliveri, Evoia. Aliveri is also the planned location for a new lignite-fired plant (as is Larimna, in Fthiotida), although RAE approval is still being sought.
PPC has also been in discussions with German energy producer RWE to create three coal-fired plants at undecided locations within that timeframe, generating as much as 3,200MW, although this appears increasingly unlikely (see page 21).
Kapros explained that the German company originally intended to establish these plants on home soil but were denied licensing on environmental grounds.
"RWE is looking to put them in Greece to get around these problems," he said. "It corresponds to coal technology, which is not the latest in the industry."
Reserving judgement
Locally mined lignite, one of the dirtiest forms of coal, currently accounts for 55 percent of the nation's energy production, followed by natural gas at 17.5 percent and renewable energy sources (chiefly hydroelectric) at 13 percent. The remainder is from diesel generators.
"The pool is operated by [national transmission operator] DESMIE, and the order of firing the plants is based on the variable cost of the fuel," said Kapros. "The plants submit economic bids, which reflect the fuel costs. The outcome is that solid fuel plants come first and then come natural gas and oil."
He stressed, however, that this order would most likely change when the cost of emissions licences is taken into consideration.
It is estimated that Greece's lignite reserves will last for another 50 to 60 years, making longterm changes of fuel sources inevitable. However, the potential closure of lignite-fired plants is counter-balanced by social considerations in the likes of Megalopolis, in the Peloponnese, and around Kozani, in western Macedonia, where the PPC plants are the regions' principal employers.
Added to this, explains Kapros, are "the concerns of security of supply of natural gas", which comes exclusively from Russia.
No to coal
According to Ahilleas Plitharas, head of WWF Hellas' climate change campaign, natural gas and renewable energy are the only viable, longterm energy solutions given environmental repercussions of burning coal-based fuels and the need to meet EU obligations.
"No one is saying that we could cover the energy needs of the country from renewables alone," said Plitharas. "What we are saying is that the percentage of renewables should be increased to around 35 percent by 2020, by which time there should also be a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions [relative to 1990 levels]."
WWF is strongly opposing the use of imported coal, which has a higher thermal efficiency to lignite and is, therefore, slightly less polluting. Indeed, the organisation has teamed up with municipalities from six regions across Greece to protest against planned coal-fired plants.
According to WWF, even with the most advanced technologies, the C02 emissions per KWh produced at coal-fired plants are around 750g/KWh. By contrast, emissions from gas-fired plants are around 350 to 375g/KWh.
This, however, will change once coal capture and storage measures become mandatory. The technology, which captures CO2 emissions and allows them to be transported through pipelines and stored indefinitely underground, will likely become obligatory for all EU power plants by 2025, according to the draft wording of the union's energy policy.
These areas, according to Kapros, have already been identified in Greece "in the north of the country and in the oilfield in Kavala".
"What no one is considering, however, is that the EU energy package will also call for a 20 percent reduction in energy consumption [compared to 1990 levels]," said Plitharas said. "This is what we should all be focusing on."
Suspended disbelief
For the long-suffering residents around Kozani, where five lignite-fired power plants produce more than a third of the country's electricity, any change in energy source would come as a welcome breath of fresh air.
"The principal problem for the area is the concentration of suspended particles in the atmosphere," Athanasios Triandafyllis, a professor at the Technical College of Kozani and a member of the region's Laboratory of Air Pollution and Environmental Physics, told this newspaper. "This has been going on for around 60 years. And the impact is twice as severe in the area around the units as in the wider basin."
He explains: "Suspended particles - and here I am referring to PM10, which are the most dangerous [form of particulate matter] as they are small and they go deeper into the respiratory system - are potentially extremely dangerous. This is why the EU has permitted upper levels for these particles. There are areas, close to the plants, where concentrations surpass these proposed levels. And the effects are increased by hot weather, such as that experienced last summer."
In September 2007, Environment Minister George Souflias slapped the PPC with fines of 600,000 euros for excessive airborne particle emissions at the Agios Dimitrios plant in Kozani and the Kardia plant in Ptolemaida - Europe's two worst polluters for 2006, according to WWF.
At the same time, Souflias also announced fines of 400,000 euros for the PPC's two Megalopolis plants (also lignite burners) for repeatedly exceeding sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Apparently, the system meant to prevent this in one of the stations (Megalopolis B) was operational for barely a third of the previous year, while regular checks of Megalopolis A's SO2 and nitrogen oxide (NO) emission levels were not performed.
Research has shown, said Triandafyllis, that for every 10 micrograms per cubic metre increase in concentration of suspended material, daily mortality also rises by between 0.6 and 1.2 percent.
(ATHENS NEWS , 18/04/2008)