Central and Southeastern European nations are better prepared for a potential gas cutoff this winter but have made little progress in weaning themselves off Russian supplies.
Last winter, a contract dispute between Kiev and Moscow spurred the Russians to shut down a pipeline serving the region, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without gas heating in freezing temperatures and forcing businesses to close.
Russia’s decision to turn off the spigot caught officials in the region unprepared and unable to quickly pipe in emergency supplies from other parts of Europe. Making matters worse was the fact many storage facilities were not filled to capacity. A dearth of links between neighboring countries and the lack of a mechanism to reverse gas flows in the opposite direction when necessary worsened the problem.
While a repeat this winter would hurt, the pain may not be as severe, in part because countries have taken measures, including arranging reverse gas flows from other parts of Europe, said Andrew Morris, director at London-based energy consultant Poyry. “They will get hit again but maybe not to the extent they were hit last time,” he said. “Last year it took quite a long time to arrange for reverse slows and getting supplies from LNG cargoes. All these things weren’t normal and had to be contractually set up.” However, Balkan countries such as Bulgaria, the worst hit by the January crisis due to a lack of access to alternative routes, have achieved little progress in reducing their almost full dependence on Russian gas in the medium to long term.
The EU has decided to partially fund the construction of links between member countries in Southeast Europe but Sofia, Athens and Bucharest have not yet announced a timetable nor secured the extra funding. An initiative of eight Central and Southeast European countries to link their gas pipeline networks, first announced in 2008, has also failed to move beyond the drawing board.
Bulgaria’s new prime minister, Boyko Borisov, said his country, despite being better prepared this time, would rely mostly on Brussels’s interference and diplomacy to prevent another crisis in the winter. Bulgaria has stored more gas in its sole gas storage facility, agreed upon possible reverse flow supplies from Greece and Turkey and required heating utilities to secure alternative fuels.
Officials from the Economy Ministry and the state energy regulator said Bulgaria’s sole gas storage facility of Chiren had enough supplies to cover winter daily consumption of about 10 million cubic meters of gas for a number of days.
In Serbia, officials have taken steps to fill a storage facility in Banatski Dvor and have rented another in Hungary, though analysts and government officials question whether this is enough. “Serbia is definitely better prepared than it was last year,” said Ian Brown of the power and energy department at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “But the key question is how much gas they will be able to draw per day.”
(KATHIMERINI, 11/13/2009)