Energy consumption targets already planned by China would contribute 25% of what needs to be done globally to limit carbon emissions and slow global warming, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency said Monday.
Energy consumption targets already planned by
China
would
contribute 25% of what needs to be done globally to limit carbon emissions and
slow global warming, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency
said Monday.
Fatih Birol told an audience of the bankers and energy analysts at the Council
on Foreign Relations in
New York
that
China
's
motivation in planning for greater nuclear power use, lower reliance on coal
and use of cleaner transportation fuels is "energy security," not
environmental improvement. But "as a co-benefit, it will help to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions."
He said he was confident that China, which accounts for about 40% of growth in
world energy demand, would move ahead with its policies, noting it has met
other strict targets in the past for reducing population growth, sustained
economic growth and bringing electricity to half a billion people in rural
areas.
Birol said
China
is
perhaps more likely to meet its commitments than some of the major industrialized
nations that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. The IEA, which is the energy policy advisor for the OECD,
advocates a "low-carbon energy revolution" in order to slow the
global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius by 2030, from a 6 degree rise that
would occur without policy changes that would cut use of fuels such as coal and
petroleum.
Birol's remarks came in presenting the IEA's annual world energy outlook and
ahead of the United Nations meeting on Climate Change Conference in
Copenhagen
next
month.
If global oil demand rates and declines in existing fields continued without
change, the world would need to discover and produce some 45 million barrels a
day more of oil by 2030 just to meet current demand of 85 million to 86 million
barrels a day, he said. That's equal to 4.5 times the current output of
Saudi
Arabia
, the world's biggest oil
exporter.
At current demand levels, some 60% of the world's natural gas output would need
to be replaced with new fields by 2030, a volume equal to four times the
current output of
Russia
, the
world's biggest gas producer, Birol said.
Rising energy costs in coming years will lift fuel bills to 2% of gross
domestic product from the 1% level it stood at since 1971, in the
U.S.
, the
world's biggest oil consumer, and other OECD nations, he said. In
China
,
energy costs would triple, to 3% of GDP by 2030, he said.
The global cost of the needed carbon reduction would be a huge $10.5 trillion,
Birol said, but delays would only boost costs by half a trillion dollars each
year.
Birol said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would stand
to earn about $28 trillion between 2008-2030, if there is no change in current
oil consumption practices. The IEA-favored policy would trim OPEC earnings to
$24 trillion in the period, he said, noting that OPEC nations should be willing
to contribute to the global cause. "They are part of the solution,"
he said. In the previous 22 years, he noted, OPEC's earnings were $6 trillion,
so even the reduced level would be four times greater than previous gains.
Birol said the IEA believes the U.S. moves to reduce carbon dioxide emissions
have to be "about twice what is talked about" currently by
policymakers. Of every $100 invested in energy projects, 52% should be invested
in renewable energy and in the transport sector, only one of 100 cars now sold
is a technologically advanced vehicle with strictly reduced emissions, he said.
By 2030, 60% of cars need to run cleaner, he said, adding that in
Europe
, wind
energy projects would be profitable at an oil price of $60-$70 a barrel.
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