China
’s
exports
surged
in December and imports rose to a record in a stronger-than-forecast trade
rebound that may lessen the case for governments to sustain stimulus programs
this year.
Exports climbed 17.7 percent from
a year earlier, the first increase in 14 months, and imports jumped 55.9
percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site yesterday. Year-on-year
comparisons are affected by the tumble that began in late 2008, when the global
credit crisis deepened.
“A global recovery is gaining
momentum and countries’ exits from stimulus may come earlier than expected,
including for
China
,”
said
Wang Hu
, a Shanghai-based
economist at Guotai Junan Securities Co., the nation’s largest brokerage by
revenue. “Soaring imports are more evidence that
China
’s
economy may face an increasing danger of overheating.”
China
’s
central bank last week guided three-month bill yields higher for the first time
since August, suggesting that the government wants to rein in liquidity to
limit the risks of real-estate bubbles and resurgent inflation. Stronger
exports may fuel overseas calls for gains by the yuan against the dollar after
policy makers halted appreciation for 17 months to help manufacturers weather
slumping demand.
The trade report spurred the currencies
of Australia and New Zealand on bets their economies will benefit from the
increase in shipments to China. The Australian dollar rose 0.4 percent to 92.85
U.S. cents and its New Zealand counterpart gained 0.5 percent to 74 cents as of
10:19 a.m. Sydney time.
Property Lending
China
’s
State Council pledged yesterday to step up “guidance” of property lending and
counter inflows of speculative capital after a record expansion of credit in
2009 that was part of government efforts to prop up growth.
None of 21 economists in a
Bloomberg News
survey
forecast such large gains in exports or imports.
China
’s
shipments to the
U.S.
and the European Union grew 15.9 percent and 10.2 percent respectively from a
year earlier, the data showed. Imports from
Australia
and
Malaysia
more than doubled.
China
overtook
Germany
as the world’s No. 1 exporter of goods in 2009 even as the Asian nation
reported yesterday its first annual decline in shipments in more than 25 years.
The data “could add more pressure
on the renminbi,” said
Lu Ting
, an economist at Bank
of America-Merrill Lynch in
Hong
Kong
, using another term for the yuan.
The “handsome recovery of
China
’s
external trade” mirrored gains by other nations in the region, Lu said.
Taiwan
Trade
Taiwan
reported its biggest export gain in 14 years in December after shipments
plunged a year earlier.
Export gains may make
China
,
the world’s fastest-growing major economy, less dependent on government
stimulus measures, including spending on railways, roads and power grids.
In December, exports were $130.7
billion and imports were $112.3 billion, leaving a
trade surplus
of $18.4 billion. The customs bureau said the import value was
unprecedented and exports were the fourth-largest on record.
“The rebound in export growth is
no surprise given the collapse in trade at the end of 2008,” said
Brian Jackson
, an
emerging-markets strategist at Royal Bank of
Canada
in
Hong Kong
. “But this is still good news and reflects a real improvement in
external demand.”
Growth Outlook
Among other positive signs for the
global economy, the International Monetary Fund has said it will probably raise
its estimate for 2010 world growth from 3.1 percent. European executive and
consumer confidence
jumped in December to a level last seen before the demise of
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
in 2008, a report showed last week.
For the full year,
China
’s
exports fell 16 percent and imports declined 11.2 percent. The trade surplus
was $196.1 billion, sliding for the first time since 2003 and falling short of
2008’s record $295.5 billion.
December’s numbers show the slump
is over for
China
’s
exporters, Huang Guohua, a statistics official with the customs bureau, said
yesterday in an interview broadcast on state television. That comment contrasts
with Chinese leaders saying in the past month that the economic recoveries of
China
and the world are not yet on solid foundations.
Chinese
imports
are being boosted by the nation’s economic acceleration, manufacturers
buying materials for processing into exports, and an increase in commodity
prices. On the nation’s east coast, Qingdao Port Group Co. is expanding wharves
to handle iron-ore imports.
Claiming Credit
“Surging imports show that the
economic stimulus policies are effectively boosting domestic demand, which also
helps to drive the global economic recovery,” the customs bureau said in a
statement
.
For all of 2009, iron-ore imports
surged 42 percent from a year earlier, those for copper and its products soared
63 percent, and purchases of aluminum and its products climbed 164 percent, the
data showed.
While Premier WenJiabao
said Dec. 27 that the nation will
“absolutely not yield” to calls for currency gains, yuan forwards indicate that
the government will allow appreciation of 3 percent against the dollar in the
next year. The yuan closed at 6.8275 per dollar on Jan. 8.
Yuan forwards rose to their
highest level in more than a month on Jan. 8 after the central bank guided the
increase in three-month bill yields. The currency gained 21 percent in three
years after a fixed exchange rate was scrapped in July 2005.
China
surpassed
Germany
in 2007 to become the third-largest economy and is forecast to overtake
Japan
this year, assuming the No. 2 spot behind the
U.S.
Germany
shipped 734.6 billion euros ($1.05 trillion) of exports in the first 11 months
of last year, the Federal Statistics Office said Jan. 8. That compared with
China
’s
$1.07 trillion over that period.
(from
Bloomberg)