Europe's incoming climate chief is determined
to crack down on emissions from cars, but any new goals are at least
a decade away.
Connie Hedegaard will struggle against
political inertia, the complexities of electric vehicles and the
power of big auto, making a rigid 2020 target her best possible
outcome.
Hedegaard is widely expected to survive a vote next month on her
nomination for the post of EU climate commissioner, clearing the way
for her to fulfil a pledge to tackle pollution from transport.
Truck and van makers had been warned of imminent regulation, but
most car firms were expecting a period of relative peace after a
bruising battle in 2008 that pitted environmentalists against auto
nations France, Germany and Italy.
Under the final deal in 2008, auto makers must cut the average
carbon dioxide output of new cars by about 15% to 130 g/km by 2015
(EurActiv02/12/08).
Denmark's Hedegaard surprised them last week by telling the
European Parliament that the current rules appeared too soft and
might need tightening.
Critics have been particularly damning that a second 2020 goal for
cars has no legal clout.
"It can be important to try and review. Did we go far enough
at the time?" she told the European Parliament hearing
(EurActiv18/01/10).
"Often we've seen industry will protest and say it's going to
be extremely difficult [...] but then it turns out that when we do
these things, we can often do it quicker than claimed before, and
they can do it even more ambitiously," she added.
Environmentalists have been saying the same thing for months. They
point to such automakers as Volkswagen, which they say has doubled
the EU emissions-cutting target in two years with a 27% reduction by
its Golf BlueMotion.
Political clash
"People in the industry tell me that emissions will be cut by
25-30% in the next three or four years simply through what's already
in the pipeline," said auto expert Paul Nieuwenhuis at Cardiff
Business School in Wales.
By comparison, the current challenge for carmakers to cut by 15%
over the next five years could look paltry.
But most veterans of the 2008 battle say it is unlikely the
27-country EU will review the 2015 targets after such an emotive
clash with industry.
"The automotive industry is quite powerful, because it is one
of Europe's largest employers and any decisions become very
political," said Tom De Vleesschauwer, a consultant at IHS
Global Insight. "What's down in the regulations for 2015 is not
going to be changed."
Instead, Hedegaard will have to settle for a strategy review and
on firming the 2020 goal, which is ambitious but has little legal
weight. That would force carmakers to make a deep cut by 38% from
today's levels to 95 g/km.
Any changes will have ramifications beyond Europe's borders and
many other regions look to the EU for a lead on environmental policy,
so standards set there have a much wider impact.
Japan has similar goals to the EU, and the United States is
struggling hard to catch up.
Revolution
Achievements so far have been via conventional technologies such
as cutting weight and improving aerodynamics, by switching to smaller
turbo-charged engines and by adding stop-start mechanisms to cut
emissions in stationary traffic.
But what follows will be much tougher.
The next steps to go below 100 g/km require breakthrough
technologies, says auto industry group ACEA. And to make such
investments, manufacturers need assurances that sales will not fall
flat.
The car industry's history books are scattered with sales flops,
such as Fiat's Seicento Elettra and Audi's Duo hybrid.
"We're on the threshold of revolutionary changes in how we
power and fuel vehicles, and nobody can do it on their own neither
the auto industry nor a policymaker," ACEA spokeswoman Sigrid de
Vries said.
Electrification will be at the heart of the 2020 strategy.
Next month in the Spanish city of San Sebastian, the EU will
launch a project to support electric vehicles.
That promises years of wrangling over a number of tricky issues,
not least how to measure the "greenness" of electric cars
when the electricity used to charge them varies so widely.
In Poland, where over 90% of power comes from highly polluting
coal-fired power stations, electric cars start to lose their green
credentials. But in France, where about 80% of power is nuclear, they
have a much lower carbon footprint.
Meanwhile, industry has yet to settle on a firm business model for
selling a rapidly evolving product. Should electric cars be sold or
leased? Could dealers sell the cars and lease the batteries?
And how about public charging facilities? The EU has a lot to get
to grips with.
"Past experience suggests that carmakers will fight to delay
and dilute the standard," said Greenpeace transport campaigner
Franziska Achterberg. "The faster policymakers get onto this,
the higher are the chances that they can fix a sufficiently ambitious
2020 target."
Hedegaard will not be the only commissioner wanting to put her
stamp on the legislation, said De Vleesschauwer at IHS Global
Insight.
"Various different Commission departments will be involved,"
he said. "The climate and environment people might be very keen
on being severe, but their colleagues dealing with competition and
enterprise might not agree. It's a big game."
(EurActiv with Reuters.)