The future stability ofIraqmay turn on the fate
of the oil city of Kirkuk, whose estimated 570,000 people are caught in a
bitter dispute between the country’s Kurdish minority and the central
government in Baghdad.
Iraq’s Kurds, who comprise about 20 per cent of the national
population, claim Kirkuk as their own. Some refer to the city as the “Jerusalem
of the Kurds” and its value is increased because it sits on some of Iraq’s
richest oilfields, with about 40 per cent of the country’s known reserves found
in the surrounding area.
Saddam Hussein tried to guarantee his hold on Kirkuk by
ethnically cleansing many of its Kurds and replacing them with Arab arrivals. Since
his downfall in 2003, Kurdish leaders have sought to reclaim the city and make
it the capital of their autonomous regional government in northern Iraq. Many
fear that this explosive issue could escalate to cause a civil war.
An enormous Kurdish flag stretches around the mound of
Kirkuk’s ancient citadel. In a nearby market, the scene is almost medieval,
with smoke rising from burning rubbish and crates of live fowls stacked up in
the street.
Under article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, a referendum
should decide the status of any disputed territories, including Kirkuk. Yet the
city has a mixed population, divided not only between Kurds and Arabs, but also
Turcomen and Christians. No one can tell which group – if any – comprises the
majority and the Baghdad government has dragged its feet on holding the
referendum. Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff for for Masoud Barzani, the
president of the Kurdish regional government, said it was critical to hold the
referendum soon. “We must have a timetable at least before 2011,” he said.
In the aftermath of thegeneral election, the Kurdish
parties are likely to wield significant power in the bargaining to create a new
coalition government in Baghdad.
But Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International
Crisis Group, cautioned against exaggerating the strength of the Kurdish
negotiating position.
“The Americans are telling them not to make [Kirkuk] an
issue, that it should not hold up the formation of the next government,” he
said.
Thescheduled withdrawal of all US forces from Iraq
next yearis giving a sense of urgency to resolving the dispute over
Kirkuk. There are also powerful regional interests at work.
Turkey, which has its own Kurdish minority, does not want
the Kurds to gain control over Kirkuk, fearing this would encourage their
ambition to form an independent state.
A political solution cannot come soon enough for most of
Kirkuk’s ordinary people, who have paid the price for the wider dispute over
the city’s – and Iraq ’s – future.
Thanks to the dispute, its development has lagged behind
other Iraqi cities. “It’s not under the control of the Kurdish regional
government and it’s only marginally influenced by the central government, so
there’s less rule of law and oversight,” said Denise Natali from the American
University of Sulaimaniyah.
(from the
Financial Times)