Has the US Energy Information Agency, traditionally one of the more bullish of the long-term forecasters on oil production, changed its tune?
Steven Kopits of energy consultants Douglas-Westwood (and sometime FT ES reader), thinks so — particularly with its forecasts out to 2020.
In an interesting post on The Oil Drum, he points out that the agency’s latest annual International Energy Outlook significantly revised downwards its oil production forecasts, particularly out to 2020:
divergence between the grey ‘actual’ production rate and the rates previously forecast by the EIA are fascinating - although the sharp divergence in 2009 could have been easily guessed at.
Looking to 2030, the EIA still sees oil production at an optimistic 103.9m barrels per day in its reference case (the IEA, for comparison, is 103m).
But as Kopits notes, the EIA’s forecasts to 2020 — 92.1m barrels a day — are now lower than almost anyone’s:For example, its forecasts to 2020 are 2-3 mbpd
lower than that of traditionally dour Total, the French oil major. And they are below our own forecasts at Douglas-Westwood through 2020. As we are normally considered to be in the peak oil camp, the EIA’s forecast is nothing short of remarkable, and grim.