UN climate talks usually rely on periodical assessment reports from the IPCC. But the latest report dates back to 2007 and the next will not be out until 2014.
In Bonn, a group of developing countries therefore asked the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to compile an assessment of the latest science to expose any potential gaps that need further evaluation.
However, the attempt to go ahead with the review was blocked by Saudi Arabia, with the support of fellow OPEC nations. Among their reasons for opposing the review were claims that there is not enough peer-reviewed literature out there for the process to uncover scientific gaps. After two days of heated debate, the discussion was eventually referred to the Cancún climate conference in December.
The debate reflects rising concern among the most vulnerable countries that current climate pledges will not be enough to stop sea-level rises and extreme weather conditions from drowning low-lying islands and turning whole countries into deserts.
The developing countries mustered a broad coalition to support their request. Even if many industrialised nations, including the EU and Australia, did not openly support it, they agreed not to block the move, delegates said.
Ronald Jumeau, ambassador of the Seychelles to the United Nations, said developing countries were "dismayed" by the manoeuvring of the oil-producing countries.
"The small island states do not have the luxury of time," he said, adding that they would bring the issue up in Cancúnagain.
Loopholes in pledges could see emissions rise
Adding further fuel to concerns were new reports that loopholes in emissions reduction pledges made so far could in fact allow developed countries to increase their emissions.
A new document released by Bolivia at the talks argued that industrialised nations could increase their emissions by up to 8% with creative carbon accounting.
The analysis exposes possible loopholes, including selling surplus allowances, or “hot air”, which Russia and the Ukraine in particular have accumulated after the collapse of their economies at the beginning of the 1990s, and weak land-use and forest accounting rules.
Without resorting to such loopholes, industrialised countries could reduce their emissions by 10-14% below 1990 levels by 2017, according to the calculations. If they are not closed, emissions would by contrast increase by 4-8%.
In any case, the figures are far from the 25-40% reduction by 2020 that scientists say is necessary to halt global warming.
Forest rules in the spotlight
As talks were nudging forwards on new rules to account for emissions from forests, either by reducing them through reforestation or increasing through felling trees, developing countries accused rich nations of trying to hide their emissions.
Accounting for emissions has been voluntary under the Kyoto Protocol, allowing developed countries to obtain credits without reducing debits from felling.
But climate campaigners warned that new rules in the making on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) would seek to exaggerate actual emission reductions.
The Climate Action Network (CAN) said the proposals from developed countries would hide 400 million tonnes of CO2 per year.
Despite protests from the Africa Group, COMIFAQ, the Coalition of Rainforest Nations and the island states of Tuvalu and Micronesia, rich countries have pushed forward with proposals that would allow them to forecast future emissions increases and then measure reductions against this higher level.
Only Switzerland called for emissions to be calculated against a historical baseline, as recommended by environmentalists.