Refiners in North America and Europe could shut down a combined 4.3 million barrels a day of refining capacity by 2013, according to Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy.
Refiners in
North America
and
Europe
could
shut down a combined 4.3 million barrels a day of refining capacity by 2013,
according to Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy.
Industry consolidation is likely to hit
Europe
the
hardest, JBC Energy said in a report. The outlook for the continent's refiners
is poor given waning gasoline demand from
North America
and
increased competition from diesel producers in
Russia
and
Asia
.
"With cracking margins hovering below a hardly profitable $2 a barrel and
demand expectations for the next years being bearish, there is still a list of
European refineries likely to either be mothballed or even shut down in the
near future," JBC said.
The consultancy forecasts 2.5 million barrels a day of unprofitable refining
capacity will need be shut down in
Europe
by
2013, assuming refinery utilization stays at an average 82%, JBC says.
Separately, North American shutdowns of around 1.8 million barrels a day are
required by 2013 to balance out the market, assuming refinery utilization
averages 86%.
JBC's forecasts are more pessimistic than estimates from the International
Energy Agency, the energy watchdog for the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development.
The IEA expects OECD refiners to close1.4 million barrels a day of refining
capacity through 2011.
"We expect this figure to increase as refiners continue to react to poor
economics and further closures are announced," the IEA said in its
medium-term oil market report in June.
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