The turmoil in Libya won't disrupt the relatively comfortable supply situation in global oil markets in the first half of this year, a senior analyst with the International Energy Agency said Friday, one day after the agency opted against tapping strategic stocks in response to the significant outages in Libya.
The turmoil in Libya won't disrupt the relatively comfortable supply
situation in global oil markets in the first half of this year, a senior
analyst with the International Energy Agency said Friday, one day after the
agency opted against tapping strategic stocks in response to the significant
outages in Libya.
"We don't think at the present time there is a major outage that cannot in
the short term be met through flexibility in the refining system and shifting
crude oil supplies around," said David Fyfe, the head of the IEA's oil
industry and markets division. "Obviously, if that supply outage worsens
or is of long duration, then we'd have to revisit the whole situation."
The IEA estimates that 500,000 to 750,000 have been removed from the market due
to the crisis in
Libya
. The
agency said it would "continue to closely monitor" the situation and
could tap strategic stocks "when deemed necessary." An IEA statement
Thursday night pointed out that leading producers in OPEC are ready to respond
with extra volumes and noted that IEA members have significant emergency
stocks.
On Friday, Fyfe characterized the global oil market as "comparatively well
supplied, at the present time."
Fyfe noted that due to seasonal refinery maintenance, crude demand in
Europe
is
about a half million barrels per day lower in February and March than in
November and December.
Fyfe said it was difficult to estimate the total impact of the unrest on oil
production, in part because of the murky status of some 500,000 barrels a day
controlled by the Libyan national oil company. Some other experts, such as Eni
SpA (E) Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni, have estimated that 1.2 million of
Libya
's 1.6
million barrel a day output is now off-line.
"The figure we gave yesterday was what we had that had been made public by
the Western companies active in
Libya
,"
Fyfe explained. "We're pulling together more information today. That
process, we haven't completed it yet. It would not be wise to speculate whether
that's gonna rise or not," he said, adding the number "may well
change in the coming days."
"We're speaking to shipping companies, we're speaking to the companies
active on the ground and we're speaking to the refiners on the Mediterranean
fringe to see what they're experiencing," he said.
Fyfe said emergency "stocks are an insurance policy of sort of last
resort. We'd like the market to fill the gap."
Beyond a simple supply volume issue, some refiners might worry that they won't
get the same high quality crude oil as from
Libya
, he
said. "Certain Libyan grades are highly valued for gasoline and diesel and
jet fuel manufacture," he said.
One option could lie in potential swaps, with Saudi Arabia -- the world's
biggest oil producer -- looking into sending Middle Eastern oil long-haul into
Asia "and potentially looking at swaps with African producers sending more
light sweet crude into the Mediterranean basin," Fyfe said. "We have
an Asian refining system that in itself is becoming more complex and more able
to handle lower-quality crude oil. There is more flexibility within the global
refining system and therefore there is a capability to juggle crude
slates," he added.
Fyfe said governments might opt to issue temporary waivers for some oil
products specifications if the current outage is long-term.
Fyfe said it was very difficult to assess if Libyan output will be able to be
restored quickly once the crisis subsides.
"It seems to us that there has not been major damage to oil installations
yet and therefore that would suggest that there should not be too many problems
reinstating production when the political situation has resolved. But of course
that could change at any time. But at the moment we're encouraged by the fact
that there are not major reports of damage to oil installations," he said.
After a peak Thursday, oil prices have retreated somewhat yet remain at a high
level.
At 1137 GMT, the front-month April Brent contract on
London
's ICE
futures exchange was up 66 cents at $112.02 a barrel. The contract nearly hit
$120 a barrel early Thursday. The front-month April contract on the New York
Mercantile Exchange was trading 59 cents up at $97.87 a barrel, down from above
$103 a barrel at one point Thursday.
Speaking in
Singapore
,
French finance minister Christine Lagarde said Friday that high oil and
commodity prices due to tensions in the
Middle East
are a
matter of concern "for all," and that international authorities must
be alert to "massive" speculation. Her comments echoed that of
Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin who said Thursday in Brussels that energy
prices were posing a "serious threat to the world."
"We are certainly concerned that the persistence of prices at this sort of
levels is a real risk in terms of undermining economic recovery, or at least
retarding economic recovery," IEA's Fyfe said. "Our members are
concerned about oil prices at these levels," he added.
Διαβάστε ακόμα
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:58
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:54
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:32
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:27
Τρι, 17 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 20:01