The Japanese earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear crisis are "expected to inflict more human and physical damage" than the 1995 Kobe earthquake, economists at Barclays Capital said.
The Japanese earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear crisis are
"expected to inflict more human and physical damage" than the 1995
Kobe
earthquake, economists at Barclays Capital said.
"Based on currently available information, we estimate that damages could
exceed JPY15 trillion (3% of gross domestic product)," they said in a
lengthy note circulated Tuesday. The affected area accounts for between 6% and
7% of the overall Japanese economy, the world's No. 3 economy.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall
Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)
"The economy in the affected region is highly open, which means
developments within the region tend to have an impact outside the region and
vice versa," economists Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai wrote.
They describe the area affected by the disaster to be a "trading
economy," one in which both demand and production are highly dependent on
other places, in contrast to the "exporting economy" of the area hit
by the 1995 quake, an area that relies mainly on demand from outside but favors
products within its economy for its own consumption.
"This suggests the impact of the latest earthquake (compared with the 1995
earthquake) is more likely to spread to other regions and, by extension, the
Japanese economy as a whole."
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