A
30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions is possible by 2020 if
Europe
meets its efficiency targets,
according to the maths used by Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard.
But no-one in the Commission will
say this publicly for two reasons.
One is that the dry figures
involved hint at a well-known and still simmering dispute between the European
Commission's climate andenergy departments –DG Clima and DG Energy.
The other is that a lack of
inter-departmental coordination has turned the issue into a technical dog's
dinner.
Number discrepancies
Officially, the Commission's
climate department maintains that a 25% reduction in planet-warming gases by
2020 is possible – if only the EU's goal of a 20% improvement on energy
efficiency is also met.
Page 55 of theimpact
assessment detailing itsLow
Carbon Roadmapfor 2050 projects
an energy consumption rate in Europe of 1,740 Million tonnes of oil equivalent
(Mtoe) by 2020.
By stark contrast, Page 2 of the communication accompanying theEnergy
Efficiency Plan, drawn up by DG Energy,predicts that just 1,600 Mtoe will
be consumed by 2020.
Commission officials confirm that
the 140 Mtoe discrepancy occurred because the scenarios used in the Low Carbon
Roadmap do not assume an achievement of the 20% energy efficiency target,
perhaps because it is not legally binding.
But if it were achieved, DG
Clima's maths shows that the assumed 25% cut in atmosphere-baking gases would
in fact be bounced up five points, to 30%.
This is because the Commission's mathematical model values one Mtoe at
two Million tonnes of CO2 (Mt CO2) and so 140 Mtoe = 280 Mt CO2. In 1990, the
baseline year for the EU's 2020's targets, CO2 emissions were5,567 Mt CO2. If you divide 280 into
5,567, you will get 5% of the total CO2 emissions for 1990.
A 'politically sensitive' issue
The discrepancy is recognised by
officials within the Commission, although none of those contacted by EurActiv
would go on the record with a comment.
One EU source described the issue
as "politically sensitive".
"There are a lot of political
problems here," he said.
EurActiv understands that both the energy and environment directorates
of the Commission used thePRIMES
model to calculate their figures.
But co-ordination between the two
DGs was affected by long-standing tensions.
According to one official, DG
Energy was "very reluctant" to work with DG Clima on any statistics
that could be used to link energy efficiency with emissions reductions,
including the energy consumption figures used in the Roadmap's Impact
Assessment.
Their skittishness masked a core
policy disagreement.
Energy Commissioner Günther Oettingerfavoursmaintaining the EU's current 20%
emissions reduction target for 2020, which he sees as the maximum that can be
achieved without a "de-industrialisation" of
Europe
.
But Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard wants itraisedto help the EU's
longer-term goal of 80-95% cuts by 2050.
This is the minimum that
scientists believe is needed to avoid more than two degrees of global warming,
which could be catastrophic.
CO2 emissions in the EU-27 countries have alreadyfallensubstantially since 1990
and, although picking up again after the recession, may still be on course to
exceed the official target of a 20% reduction by 2020.