One year since the Macondo accident, BP's equity has fallen about 23% in
US dollar terms, implying value destruction of $82B, says Citigroup. It thinks
$22B is directly attributed to tangible accident costs, so "the debate for
investors is whether the other $60B of value loss is an intangible cost of the
spill or an investment opportunity."
Citi notes BP is shifting strategy
into potentially high-impact frontier exploration in
Brazil
,
India
and
perhaps
Russia
. However,
the downside is the long lead-time to judge any success, "a period in
which growth looks anemic, capex is rising and profitability is under
pressure."