Nuclear power's share of
global energy generation may fall to 10% in 2035 from 14% currently if
governments continue to switch to other resources in response to the Fukushima
disaster, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said
Tuesday.
Such scenarios may result in higher greenhouse gas emissions due to greater use
of natural gas, coal and renewable energy sources, Birol said in a speech.
The massive earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan on March 11 caused heavy damage to the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, where workers have been struggling to control
radiation leaks in the world's worst nuclear crisis since the disaster at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine in 1986.
Fears over the use of nuclear power have prompted Germany
to adopt a plan to phase out this form of energy, while some emerging economies
including China
also are delaying expansion programs to review and strengthen safety standards.
The IEA last year in its annual report forecast that another 360 gigawatts of
nuclear generation capacity will be brought online by 2035. However, it's
possible that only half of that capacity will materialize, cutting the share of
nuclear power, Birol said.
If countries are to find replacement sources of energy in the "low-nuclear
case," an additional 130 million tons of coal, 80 billion cubic meters of
gas and 460 trillion watt-hours of renewable energy will likely be needed
between now and 2035, he said.
Even with greater use of renewable energy, the burning of more coal and gas in
the low-nuclear case is expected to increase carbon dioxide emissions by 500
million tons between now and 2035, Birol said.