IENE has just published a major reference study, entitled «South
East Europe Energy Outlook». The study provides a thorough and detailed
perspective of the energy sector of the region. The structure of the
study is
based on two main parts: (i) the energy profile of each country and (ii)
sectorial
analyses. Furthermore, the study covers the liberalization of the
electricity
and natural gas markets, stresses the role of the «Energy Community» and
the
influence of the European unification process on the countries of SE
Europe.
There is also an in-depth analysis on Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and
Energy
Efficiency, Climate Change, as well as an assessment of energy demand
and
energy supply for 2020 and 2030.
Another key element of this
interdisciplinary study aims at
assessing the flow of investments and capital that will be required for
energy
projects in the region by 2020. This examination is conducted on a
country-by-country basis and also from a sectorial angle. The study,
also, focuses on the structural
changes that will be necessary for the promotion of these investments.
No less than 20 contributors (academics,
energy experts, professionals of the public and private energy sector,
IENE’s
scientific associates e.tc.) from all different energy sectors and from
almost
all countries of the region participated in this study project.
After an extended introduction which covers the economic and
political background of SE Europe, the study examines the influence of
the
European integration process on the development of the energy sector and
the
relevant infrastructure in the countries of the region. The countries
examined
in the study include: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia,
Cyprus, FYROM, Greece, Kosovo (UNMIK), Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and
Turkey.
The individual country profile analyses focus on oil
(upstream-downstream),
natural gas, electricity, solid fuels, RES and energy efficiency, as
well as on
environmental issues.
Infrastructure-Investments
IENE’s «South East Europe Energy Outlook» further analyses
the relevant data on regional energy demand and consumption, and also
identifies future trends. It also refers to the required new energy
infrastructure and the associated investment and business opportunities.
According to the «Outlook» study, the total value of energy investments
in the
region by 2020 is likely to exceed 240 billion euros. More specifically,
90 billion euros will be
invested in electricity (i.e. new power generation plants, electricity
grids,
electricity transmission lines, coal and lignite mines), as SE Europe
will need
an additional 40-42 GW of installed capacity over the next 10 years.
Additionally,
the investments in RES (excluding energy efficiency) are foreseen to add
up to
48 billion euros, corresponding to 28-30 GW of new installed capacity.
Additional
funds in the region of 20 billion, are likely to be spent on Energy
Efficiency
projects.
The main conclusion of the study is that the prospects for
energy investments in the whole SE region, are overwhelmingly positive
for the
coming decade, even with anticipated low economic growth (3.0% per
annum) and
low energy yearly consumption (0.2% per annum), with the region’s major
countries (i.e. Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania) benefiting more in
terms
of new investment and with progress in other parts of the region lagging
behind.
Apart from electricity, there are significant opportunities
in all other energy branches in SE Europe:
- In natural gas investments in new main transmission pipelines,
LNG terminals and liquefaction plants are anticipated to reach 25
billion
euros. These investments are to take place mainly in Romania and Cyprus
(following the recent discovery of large natural gas offshore deposits
in both
countries). Further investments in the gas sector are also anticipated
in
Western Balkans, where old infrastructure is being replaced and
upgraded.
- The South Corridor pipeline projects for the transmission
of natural gas from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe are of major
geopolitical importance for the region. The respective investments are
estimated
to reach 21 billion euros with at least two main pipelines being
constructed.
- The investments in hydrocarbon exploration are anticipated
to amount up to 34 billion euros until 2020 and several research and
exploration projects are already underway in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria,
Croatia
and Cyprus with Greece expected to follow very soon.
- Last, but not least, investments in refining are expected
to add up to 23 billion euros by 2020.
Competition – Market Operation
It is no exaggeration to state that the «South East Europe
Energy Outlook», serves as a road map for the regional energy sector,
stressing
the geopolitical importance of the big energy oil and gas pipelines but
also
outlining investments in several subsectors (oil and natural gas
pipelines,
nuclear stations, refineries, LNG terminals, wind farms, PV parks etc.),
as
well as emphasizing the need for a more liberal, open and competitive
energy
market in SE Europe. One of the basic conclusions of the study is the
need for
accelerating the liberalization process of the regional electricity and
natural
gas markets, which will help enforce the pace of investments and
financing of
infrastructure.
Energy Security
The improvement of energy security of SE European countries
and of the region as a whole, is underlined in many chapters of the
study
focusing on the geopolitical aspects and their influence on regional
energy
supply. A major priority is the extension of the present interconnection
system
of natural gas and oil supply throughout the region, as well as the
construction of new gas storage facilities. There is also a major focus
on the
need for constructing certain intercontinental natural gas pipelines by
2020, in order to enhance
European energy security and, at the same time, provide additional
quantities
of natural gas to the European continent. The role of SE Europe in this
process
as an important energy bridge is considered vital.
IENE’s «South East Europe Energy Outlook» Study sponsors and
supporters included some major Greek and European energy companies
including: PPC
SA, Sencap SA, EGL SA, DEPA SA, Hellenic Gas Transmission Operator SA
(DESFA),
Terna Energy SA, Protergia SA and KLC
Law Firm.
This 596-page «Outlook» study publication can be ordered directly
from the Institute’s offices or through IENE’s website (www.iene.gr).