The International Energy Agency's surprise release of 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks last month drew plenty of critics.
The International Energy Agency's surprise release of 60 million barrels
of oil from emergency stocks last month drew plenty of critics.
First, it was said to be too radical a move from the agency as the oil price
plunged. Later, as the oil price rebounded, it was criticized for being
ineffective.
Although the price of oil today is back above its level before the stock
release, a number of other important price indicators suggest that the IEA's
action was quite successful in the more subtle ways that the agency always
claimed to be focusing on.
The IEA always argued that the stock release was not aimed at lowering the
price of oil benchmarks like Brent crude. Rather, the agency said, it was plugging
a gap in the supply of light, sweet crude oil that was caused by the shutdown
of Libyan exports by the civil war.
Refiners, particularly in
Europe
and
the
U.S.
,
favor this kind of oil to manufacture gasoline and diesel. The loss of Libyan
supplies was a problem in itself, but it also pushed up the price of similar
light crudes from
Nigeria
so
high that many of these companies could scarcely turn a profit refining it.
Furthermore, as demand rises with the summer driving season, the IEA said there
was a danger of genuine shortages of this kind of oil.
In these respects the stock release, two-thirds of which was light crude, has
been a success, the IEA says. Narrowing premiums for light crude, higher
refining margins and an increase in light oil supplies available to
Asia
show
the release has had the desired effect, said the IEA's director of Energy
Markets and Security, Didier Houssin.
Nigerian crude prices have indeed come under pressure. The premiums at which
major Nigerian crude grades Bonny Light and Qua Iboe sell to benchmark Brent
crude have fallen as low as $1.70 a barrel, from $2.50 a barrel last month,
according to oil traders. Prices may fall even further, as traders say several
oil cargoes to be shipped in August remain unsold.
Asia
has also benefited. The gap between the price of
Saudi Light crude and Saudi Heavy crude when shipped to
Asia
has
shrunk from $5.65 a barrel in June to $3.25 a barrel in August, the kingdom's
official selling prices show.
These may look like small price shifts when oil is trading above $100 a barrel,
but they make a big difference to refiners that operate with wafer thin profit
margins, so can increase the incentive to produce more fuel.
The price of Brent crude had rebounded above its pre-stock release level within
a week, but the
U.S.
national average gasoline price remains below its level a month ago, according
to AAA data.
Whether this effect will be lasting is another question. The IEA stock release
it set will last only 30 days, after which the agency expects increased oil
production from
Saudi Arabia
to
fill the
Libya
gap. However,
not everyone believes
Saudi Arabia
is
quite up to the job.
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