Moves by Iran to deploy more-advanced centrifuge machines for the production of nuclear fuel are raising new concerns that Tehran could significantly shorten the time it would need to produce nuclear bombs.
Moves by
Iran
to
deploy more-advanced centrifuge machines for the production of nuclear fuel are
raising new concerns that
Tehran
could
significantly shorten the time it would need to produce nuclear bombs.
In recent weeks, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has notified United
Nations inspectors that it has begun deploying what are described as second-
and third-generation centrifuges at its uranium-enrichment facility in the city
of
Natanz
,
according to diplomats briefed on the correspondence.
Tehran
has also said that it plans to set up these
advanced machines at an underground uranium-enrichment site run by
Iran
's
elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, near the holy city
of
Qom
, said
these officials.
Iran
denies it seeks to develop nuclear weapons.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall
Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)
The more-advanced centrifuges, called IR-2Ms and IR-4s, are believed to be
capable of enriching uranium at rates three times as fast as those
Tehran
currently uses, the IR-1s.
Any significant deployment of these machines in the coming months, said
U.S.
and
European officials, could significantly shorten the time, in the Obama
administration's assessment, that
Iran
could
produce the highly enriched uranium needed to create nuclear weapons.
U.S.
officials estimate that
Tehran
would
now need 18 months to two years to convert its stockpile of low-enriched
uranium--around 4,000 kilograms--into the weapons-grade material for a bomb. A
successful deployment of new IR-2M and IR-4 machines could cut this time in
half, if not by more, depending on their numbers and efficiency, said these
officials.
Nuclear experts estimate
Iran
has
enough low-enriched uranium to produce nearly four bombs, if the material is
enriched further to weapons-grade.
U.S.
and
European officials have said they are concerned about
Iran
's
recent announcements. "
Iran
has
just staged a new action of provocation by announcing the forthcoming
installation of a new generation of centrifuges," said
France
's
foreign ministry spokesman.
But there remains skepticism inside the Obama administration that
Tehran
will
be able to deploy the advanced centrifuges in a meaningful way.
"They like to give the impression that they've made more advances than
they have," said a senior
U.S.
official. "I think the progress they are making is more rhetorical than
real."
U.S.
intelligence agencies and inspectors from the U.N.'s Vienna-based International
Atomic Energy Agency have been fixated on the status of
Iran
's
advanced centrifuges for at least five years.
Iranian officials have on a number of occasions said they were moving to begin
operating cascades of IR-2 machines at Natanz, according to IAEA staff, but
never followed through. IAEA officials visited Iranian laboratories in 2006 and
saw test models of IR-2 machines that appeared close to operational.
IAEA staff and
U.S.
officials say they think
Iran
has
so far failed to introduce the machines for technical reasons and as a result
of sanctions.
On the technical front, the machines spin at supersonic speeds and can easily
malfunction or break up if not property balanced and configured. International
sanctions imposed on
Iran
by
the international community are also seen limiting
Tehran
's
ability to procure the raw materials needed to build the advanced centrifuges,
particularly carbon fiber and high-strength maraging steel. Much of the global
supply of these materials comes from
U.S.
allied countries, such as
Japan
and
Germany
.
Iranian officials have told the IAEA that it has begun installing two cascades
of advanced centrifuges at the Natanz site, one made of IR-2m machines and the
second of IR-4s, according to Vienna-based diplomats. Each cascade is made up
of 164 machines and can be used to enrich uranium to levels of either 3.5% or
19.75% purity. Uranium normally needs to be enriched to around 90% purity to be
considered weapons-grade.
U.S.
and
European officials, though, are more concerned about what
Iran
is
planning to do at the site in
Qom
.
The head of
Iran
's
Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, in June told the IAEA that
Tehran
was seeking to triple production of nearly
20%-enriched uranium at the site. Because the
Qom
facilities are buried under a mountain, they are seen as sheltered from an
American or Israeli air attack.
Iran
argues that it needs to produce 20% enriched uranium to fuel
Iran
's
research reactor in
Tehran
and
to develop medical applications.
U.S.
and
European officials say
Iran
is
stockpiling amounts well in excess of what is needed to run the reactor. They
also note that technical work required to advance to producing 20% enriched
uranium from 3.5% is much more difficult than then advancing to the 90%,
weapons-grade level.
"Now the entire program appears geared up to producing 20%-enriched
uranium," said Olli Heinonen, who served as the IAEA's chief nuclear
inspector up until last year. "They are going to higher enrichment in a
serious way."
In a separate development, an Iranian nuclear scientist, Darioush Rezaeinejad,
was assassinated last week by two unidentified gunmen in downtown
Tehran
. He
was the third Iranian nuclear scientist killed inside
Iran
over
the past two years.
Iran
's
government said Mr. Rezaeinejad wasn't involved in
Iran
's
nuclear program. But officials briefed on his work said he was an expert in
developing high-voltage switches, which are key components in setting off the
explosions needed to trigger nuclear warheads. Mr. Rezaeinejad had written
papers on the subject and submitted them to Iranian journals. He was believed
to be in his mid-30s, and not necessarily a senior official in
Tehran
's
nuclear program.
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