Coal production will fall 1.7pc in 2011 despite a significant increase in coal exports, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly Short-term Energy Outlook published yesterday.
The estimate marks an accelerated decline from the 1.2pc decrease EIA projected in July.
US coal production this year has been hampered by widespread flooding that hit western coal, whose output declined 2pc in the first six months of 2011 compared with the same period the year before. Coal production from the Western region declined 2pc in the first six months of 2011 compared with the same period the year before, while production in the Appalachian region increased.
The agency also removed tonnage from its 2012 forecast, saying US production will increase 0.3pc next year rather than the 1.8pc it forecast in its July outlook.
EIA also increased its estimate for a drop in the electric power sector's coal consumption to nearly 3pc in 2011 from its previous projection of a 2.5pc decrease, as total electricity generation rises by less than 1pc and generation from natural gas increases by 3.5pc.
In July, the EIA reported the share of US electricity generated by coal during the first quarter of 2011 was at the lowest level in more than 30 years as power plants switched to natural gas. Coal provided 46pc of total generation in the first quarter, down from 49pc in 2010 and 52pc in 2008 during the same three-month period. Total electricity generation increased less than 1pc in the first quarter.
EIA also said in its short-term outlook update that it expects coal consumption at coke plants will increase 17pc to 25mn st in 2011 and stay near that level in 2012.
Coal consumed in other sectors will remain at about 52mn st in 2011 and 2012.
US coal exports are expected to reach 98mn st in 2011, above the EIA's previous forecast of 96mn st. Exports are expected to fall to 83mn st in 2012 as supply from other exporting countries recovers. The forecasted level of imports remains unchanged at 19mn st for both 2011 and 2012.
Elsewhere in the report the agency forecasts fossil-fuel CO2emissions will decline 0.5pc in 2011, as emission increases from higher natural gas consumption are offset by declines in coal and petroleum consumption. The July Short-term Energy Outlook called for emissions to remain flat in 2011.