The recent success of rebel forces against Gadhafi is likely to mean
Libya
will
be producing more crude than initially expected by end 2012, says Goldman
Sachs. It had originally forecast production would average 250,000 b/d next
year, but now sees a greater possibility that production could reach 585,000b/d
by end 2012.
Extra oil would push back timing of the bank's projected drawdown
of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months. However, GS says even should
political and security conditions allow, Libyan exports are likely to be
limited to at most 600,000 b/d in the short to medium-term, just half of the
1.3 million b/d the country was exporting before violence broke out in
February.