A restart of Libyan oil exports will lead to a renewed fixing of tankers, which should boost Mediterranean freight rates in 2012, Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at The Baltic and International Maritime Council told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.
A restart of Libyan oil exports will lead to a renewed fixing of
tankers, which should boost Mediterranean freight rates in 2012, Peter Sand,
chief shipping analyst at The Baltic and International Maritime Council told
Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.
"In 2009,
Libya
exported 1.33 million barrels of oil. Assuming this is the export target in
2012, where most is crude oil shipped off in tankers and the rest various oil
products, a monthly demand for 60 Aframax vessels and 30 Medium Range product
tankers is what's in sight," Sand said.
Sand said the tanker market should be boosted by resumed oil production and
subsequent exports out of
Libya
, as
well as a need to restore the Strategic Petroleum Reserves that were drawn upon
due to the recent International Energy Agency intervention.
In July 2011, the IEA said its 28 members would make available 60 million
barrels of oil from their emergency stocks to offset lost supplies from
Libya
, in
an attempt to balance the market and prevent shortages.
Prior to the war,
Libya
produced 1.57 million barrels of crude oil a day. Following the outbreak of
violence, output dropped by 80% to around 250,000-300,000 barrels a day since
March, most of which is said to be consumed domestically, leaving little room
for exports.
Libya
's
violence significantly lowered tanker demand in the
Mediterranean
, in
particular Aframax demand from Libyan ports, together with a halt in oil
product exports.
Libya
's
main customers of crude oil are
Italy
,
Germany
,
France
and
Spain
.
Sand warned, however, that
Libya
's
path back to normality could be a difficult one, if damage has occurred to oil
export infrastructure, pipelines or production facilities.
"Libyan crude oil is quite waxy, so if a pipeline has been left inactive for
a long time it may have clogged up. This leaves two to three months of
maintenance before the clogged up pipelines can be used normally. But to what
extent the grid of pipelines needs to be worked on before full production can
resume remains one of the key chokepoints in the recovery," Sand said.
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