Global refinery crude runs will be lower in the third and fourth quarters of 2011 than forecast last month, as maintenance in Asia and a fire at Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore curtailed Asian refinery runs, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report Wednesday.
Global refinery crude runs will be lower in the third and fourth
quarters of 2011 than forecast last month, as maintenance in Asia and a fire at
Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore curtailed Asian
refinery runs, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market
report Wednesday.
A full restart of Shell's 500,000 barrels a day refinery after the Sept. 28
fire is unlikely for at least another month, the IEA said.
Third quarter global runs are now expected to average 75.5 million barrels a
day, 50,000 barrels a day less than forecast in September. Runs are seen
reaching 75.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, 75,000 barrels a day
less than forecast earlier.
Higher throughputs in the
U.S.
,
supported by strong refined product exports, only partly offset lower runs in
Asia
, the
IEA said. But Asian runs could rise at the very end of the year, when new
capacity is commissioned, the agency added.
In August,
Japan
showed the strongest increase in throughputs among developed economies, but
runs fell in September as refineries started entering autumn maintenance season
and amid a typhoon which delayed crude shipments, the IEA said.
China
's
August runs were the second-lowest so far this year, but the restart of
PetroChina's
Dalian
refinery at the beginning of September and the launch of new refining capacity
elsewhere "will likely lead to higher runs at the end of the year,"
the report said.
The Paris-based energy watchdog said that refinery consolidation continues in
the developed economies, as companies concluded or announced extended refinery
sales and shutdowns in September, amounting to almost 1 million barrels a day.
With nearly 700,000 barrels a day of refining capacity for sale or to be shut
down on the U.S. East Coast by the middle of the next year, crude oil and
refined products trade dynamics could change significantly in 2012, the agency
said.
"More light sweet crude from
Nigeria
and
the
North Sea
would be available for other markets [about
300,000 barrels a day of each], while [
U.S.
]
product import requirements could increase dramatically, potentially reversing
the trend of rising exports noted above," the IEA said.
In
Europe
, run cuts have remained deeper than a year ago,
partly due to weak refining economics, the agency said.
"While the loss of Libyan supplies since February prompted several
refiners to undertake turnarounds earlier than planned, several plants are
currently reducing runs or shutting altogether due to poor margins," the
report said.
The agency cut global oil demand by 50,000 barrels a day for 2011 and by
210,000 barrels a day for 2012, citing weaker economic forecasts.
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