Advocates for a binding international climate treaty are hoping the
upcoming United Nations talks in South Africa yield an agreement to maintain
the Kyoto Accord's climate mitigation rules for the next few years and a
commitment to enact a binding global agreement in the 2018 or 2020 time-frame,
France's chief climate negotiator said Friday.
The hope is for "an agreement that would allow us to continue implementing
Kyoto, but without the full legal force," said Paul Watkinson, the head of
the climate negotiations team for France's Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable
Development, Transport and Housing.
Watkinson said he also hopes governments will commit to a binding climate
agreement in the 2018-2020 time-frame. Climate advocates have little hope for a
binding international agreement imminently given political reluctance in the
U.S.
,
China
and
other key countries, he said.
Environmentalists have essentially dismissed the chance that this year's
Durban
,
South
Africa
climate talks will result in
a strong binding international agreement to replace the Kyoto Accords when the
agreement runs out at the end of 2012. But advocates of aggressive climate
mitigation are focused on defining the expectations for the talks after the
2010
Copenhagen
negotiations were widely seen as a huge failure. The two-week talks begin Nov.
28.
Some advocates of the climate mitigation fear the
Durban
talks
could end in a bitter stalemate and further impede progress on the issue. Many
developing countries want the
U.S.
and
other rich countries to embrace a Kyoto-style agreement, because it puts the
onus for emissions cuts on developed countries. But the
U.S.
has
said it won't commit to a binding agreement without the buy-in of
China
and
other emerging countries.
Watkinson's remarks came shortly after a conference at Sciences Po that looked
ahead to international climate negotiations.
Speakers cited numerous obstacles to international climate mitigation, ranging
from weak political support in the
U.S.
to
the European sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, speakers noted there is
much greater public awareness than in prior decades and that major
international trade agreements have required decades of tough negotiation.
Watkinson said the
Kyoto
mechanism was important to continue beyond 2012, but that there probably isn't
time for governments to formally ratify a renewable of
Kyoto
, even
if there was political will to do so.
"This could be a very difficult conference," Watkinson said of
Durban
. "There's a lot of scope
for argument."