An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would only set back Tehran's programme by a couple of years, the head of a respected London-based think-tank said Wednesday.
An Israeli attack on
Iran
's
nuclear facilities would only set back
Tehran
's
programme by a couple of years, the head of a respected London-based think-tank
said Wednesday.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) head John Chipman said an
Israeli attack against
Iran
was
unlikely this year, following
U.S.
assurances this week to
Israel
that
it would not rule out military action.
Only the
United States
could
conduct a serious campaign against
Iran
's
nuclear facilities, he said.
Furthermore, a pre-emptive Israeli strike could backfire because it is likely
to push the
Tehran
regime to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, warned the IISS director-general at
the release of its annual "Military Balance" report.
Western powers suspect
Iran
is
seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a charge denied by
Tehran
which
says its atomic programme is for purely civilian purposes.
"My judgment is that an Israeli attack on
Iran
of an
overt kind is unlikely this year," Chipman told a news conference on the
annual assessment of the global military power balance.
"Both
Israel
and
the
United States
are
conscious that
Israel
can
conduct a raid; only the
United
States
can conduct a campaign.
"I think that it's the latter that would be necessary in order to delay,
in any meaningful way, the acquisition of a confirmed Iranian nuclear military
capability.
"The judgment of most military experts is that any attack--whether a raid
or a campaign--would only delay such acquisition and could, of course,
incentivize the regime, once it reorganizes itself, to move ever quicker
towards that goal."
Chipman said that in talks this week in
Washington
,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received an assurance from U.S.
President Barack Obama.
The promise was "in effect, that if
Israel
took
U.S.
advice and did not attack prematurely, that when the threat matured, the
United
States
would, if all other options
failed, use the military option."
"So my judgment is that it is unlikely that there would be an attack this
year."
He added: "Washington has appealed for patience, on the grounds that Iran
is not on the verge of producing nuclear weapons, that Israeli air strikes
would set back Iran's programme by only a couple of years, and that sanctions
are now having a real impact on Iran."
Iran
could
carry out its threat to close the
Strait of Hormuz
by
mining the key shipping channel and using anti-ship missiles, torpedoes or
rockets, Chipman said.
"While these capabilities could disrupt shipping temporarily, the
U.S.
and
its allies maintain significant maritime assets in the region and would soon be
able to reopen the strait," he said.
Iran
could
also try to impose more bureaucracy on shipping, increasing transit times by
imposing more demands on vessels using the waters it controls.
Chipman said tensions remained high in the
Middle East
, with
regional states concerned about
Iran
's
nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.
Gulf countries were continuing to buy a great deal of military equipment in
response, he said.
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