U.S. anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese exports of solar panels are unlikely to slow the pace at which Chinese companies are capturing U.S. market share, but they will likely slow their sales in the U.S. in the short term, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
U.S.
anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese exports of solar panels are unlikely to slow
the pace at which Chinese companies are capturing
U.S.
market share, but they will likely slow their sales in the
U.S.
in
the short term, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
"We believe the initial tariff duties of 2.9%-4.3% imposed by the Commerce
Department are quite low and therefore represent more of a warning than a
barrier that could significantly affect the Chinese companies' ability to
compete in the U.S. market," the ratings company said in a research
report.
The duties will likely slow solar sales in the U.S in the short term and hurt
Chinese downstream exporters' cash flow, the report said. However, the duties
are "unlikely to change the momentum of Chinese success in winning market
share and driving down prices."
However, a second preliminary ruling by the U.S. Commerce Department, expected
in May, might result in more restrictive duties and penalties on Chinese
exporters, Fitch said in the report.
Last week the U.S. Commerce Department ruled in favor of US solar firms that
accused Chinese solar manufacturers of receiving unfair government subsidies. A
second preliminary decision, including on allegations of dumping by Chinese
firms, is scheduled for May.
Final decisions on the issue will rest with the U.S. International Trade
Commission, and are not likely to be made until toward the end of 2012.
Fitch expects consolidation of the solar industry is likely to continue in 2012
after several manufacturers in
North America
filed
for bankruptcy due to industry oversupply and competition with Chinese
manufacturers.
"The winners will be those who can lower costs the fastest, and clearly
the Chinese companies are in an advantageous position," Fitch said,
Large upstream companies such as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., who are cost
leaders, will likely dominate and squeeze out smaller competitors, Fitch said.
Leading Chinese solar companies such as Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) ,
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE) and Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) have all
expressed their determination to push forward sales in the
U.S.
market despite the decision.
China
now
accounts for about half of the world's solar panel and module production. The
U.S.
accounted for only 7% of global output in 2010, the report said.
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