The wind-power
market is expected to grow more slowly than prior estimates, with Make
Consulting and Navigant Consulting Inc. (NCI) cutting forecasts
through 2016.
Global installations
will probably increase at a compound 7 percent a year in the next five years,
Aarhus, Denmark-based Make said today in an e-mailed statement, down from its
prior 10 percent figure. Navigant’s BTM Consult unit cut its cumulative
forecast for the five years through 2016 14 percent to almost 270,000 megawatts
of turbines.
Turbine makers fromVestas
Wind Systems A/S (VWS), the biggest, to
Spain
’s Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA andIndia’sSuzlon
Energy Ltd. (SUEL)have been buffeted by the loss of subsidies in three of
the seven biggest markets. In the
U.S.
, a cash-grant program ended last
year and a tax credit expires in December, while
Spain
suspended clean-energy
incentives in January and an Indian tax break for wind farms is set to expire
on March 31.
“The reasons for the
downgrade are regulatory uncertainty in the
U.S.
,
India
and
Spain
,” Robert Clover, an analyst with
Make, said today in a phone interview. In
North America
, the expiring
U.S.
incentives led to “a certain amount
of demand being pulled forward, which will lead to a drop-off next year.”
BTM forecast delays
in extending or replacing the
U.S.
tax credit will cut 2013
installations by about 9 percent to 7,500 megawatts, said Aris Karcanias, one
of the report’s authors.
“We’re anticipating
an extension,” Karcanias said today in an interview. “There will be a bit of a
delay to activity in the
U.S.
until that’s resolved.”
Vestas
on Top
Spain
, which in 2009 was the top wind turbine
installer in
Europe
, according to Global Wind Energy Council data, this year suspended
subsidies to new renewable installations as it reins in spending. The European
share of new wind power fell last year to 24.5 percent of the global total from
more than half five years ago, according to BTM.
Vestas (VWS)remained
the world’s largest wind turbine maker with 12.9 percent of the market in 2011,
BTM said. It topped Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. with a 9.4
percent share.General Electric Co. (GE)was third with 8.8 percent,
Gamesa was next at 8.2 percent and Enercon GmbH ranked fifth at 7.9 percent,
Ringkoebing, Denmark-based BTM said today in an e-mailed statement. Sinovel
Wind Group dropped to seventh from second.