If western sanctions shut down more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil production, it would lead to a much tighter and more volatile oil market in the second half of this year, said the head of the International Energy Agency's oil markets division, David Fyfe, Friday.
If western sanctions shut down more than 1 million barrels a day of
Iranian oil production, it would lead to a much tighter and more volatile oil
market in the second half of this year, said the head of the International
Energy Agency's oil markets division, David Fyfe, Friday.
The IEA expects that between 800,000 and 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil
will be taken off the market by July, due to a European Union embargo on
Iranian crude imports and
U.S.
sanctions on countries that deal with
Iran
's
central bank, Fyfe said at the Platts Crude Oil Market conference in
London
.
However, Fyfe acknowledged that this estimate does not take account of the
impact of EU sanctions that will block many ships from obtaining reinsurance if
they trade with
Iran
.
London
is
the world's largest market for shipping reinsurance, so EU sanctions could end
up affecting many more shipments from
Iran
than
would be directly covered by the embargo.
The IEA hasn't been able to quantify the precise impact of the reinsurance
issue on Iranian oil shipments, but it could increase the amount of oil removed
from the market, Fyfe said.
Analysts at Barclays said this week that, "the lack of availability of
shipping reinsurance threatens the loss of a far greater volume of Iranian
output." If as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian oil were to be
taken off the market, oil prices could rise significantly, it said.
The EU's shipping insurance ban was finalized in April, but the
U.K.
won
temporary exemptions to allow European companies to provide liability and
environmental insurance on shipments of Iranian crude until July 1.
"If the shipping reinsurance becomes a part of the European sanctions,
countries like Japan, Korea and even India that want to take oil, regardless of
what they say to (U.S. Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton, are going the
struggle," said Barclays analyst Amrita Sen. "Then we can see 1
million or 1.5 million barrels a day of loss of exports."
If as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian oil were to be taken off the
market, oil prices could rise significantly, Barclays said in a research report
earlier this week.
Διαβάστε ακόμα
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:58
Τρι, 24 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 19:54
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:32
Τετ, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 18:27
Τρι, 17 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 20:01