Global natural gas demand will likely surge over the next five years, largely due to a more than doubling of consumption in China even as a boom in unconventional production continues unabated in the U.S., turning the country into an exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2017, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
Global natural gas demand will likely surge over the next five years,
largely due to a more than doubling of consumption in China even as a boom in
unconventional production continues unabated in the U.S., turning the country
into an exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2017, the International Energy
Agency said Tuesday.
By 2017, global gas demand could grow by around 580 billion cubic
meters--nearly equal to the entire current annual production of
Russia
, the
world's biggest gas producer, the IEA said in a report.
The IEA last year predicted the onset of a "golden age of gas" due to
an abundance of cheap supply and rising demand from
China
and
Japan
,
where demand was surging in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
accident.
U.S.
production has been surging over the past several years thanks to hydraulic
fracturing, or fracking, which has enabled companies to extract natural gas
trapped in shale rock formations. Despite record-low prices, the revolution
will "continue in full swing" and may even end coal's hundred-year
dominance in
U.S.
power
generation, the IEA said.
Environmental opposition and a lack of infrastructure will limit shale gas
production outside the U.S. even as unconventional gas reserves rise across the
globe, it said, adding that only China and Poland are likely to start shale gas
production on a commercial scale by 2017.
The most fundamental shift in the global gas market will happen when the
U.S.
exports its first cargoes of liquefied natural gas, which is expected by 2016
or 2017, the IEA said. Such a scenario was unthinkable not so long ago, when
the
U.S.
was
deemed to be a guaranteed market for LNG with new capacity being planned,
particularly in
Qatar
and
Australia
.
The shale gas revolution has coincided with a huge expansion of the global LNG
trade that has vastly increased the availability of a fuel that for decades
could only be pumped through pipelines.
The volume of LNG traded globally increased by almost 10% in 2011, with the
bulk of additional supplies going to hungry Asian markets, especially
Japan
.
China
is
expected to remain the fastest-growing natural gas market, with annual
consumption forecast to more than double to 273 billion cubic meters in 2017,
the IEA said.
Adding to rising demand, several Southeast Asian countries will become LNG
importers over the next five years, including current exporters such as
Malaysia
and
Indonesia
, it
said.
Despite the increase in global trade of natural gas, expectations of an
interconnected global gas market haven't been realized, and most markets remain
dependent on regional pipeline supplies, the IEA said.
"The prospect of a global gas price not only did not materialize, but also
looks increasingly less plausible," the IEA said.
The global LNG trade is expected to slow considerably in the next three years
before abruptly accelerating again in 2015 once Australian and then
U.S.
exports come onto the market, it said.
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