North Korea could build an arsenal of up to 48 nuclear weapons, several times more than it has now, if the communist state were able to step up its program unchecked, a U.S. think tank said Thursday.
North Korea
could
build an arsenal of up to 48 nuclear weapons, several times more than it has
now, if the communist state were able to step up its program unchecked, a
U.S.
think
tank said Thursday.
North Korea
's
nuclear program is shrouded in secrecy, but the Institute for Science and
International Security used limited available information to chart out
different scenarios for
Pyongyang
's
progress in the coming years.
North Korea, which first tested an atomic bomb in 2006, is believed to be able
to produce between six and 18 nuclear weapons through a plutonium program. It
is less clear whether it has the means to deliver the weapons.
With international negotiations at a standstill, satellite imagery has shown
that
North Korea
has
been pursuing work on a light-water reactor that is officially for civilian
purposes but could produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Kim Jong Un's regime is also constructing a uranium enrichment plant,
ostensibly to produce fuel for the new reactor. But scientists believe
North
Korea
could also use the plant to
develop highly enriched uranium, giving the country a second way to produce
nuclear weapons.
The study found that, if the light-water reactor doesn't produce plutonium for
nuclear weapons, the growth in
North
Korea
's arsenal will be modest,
with 14 to 25 nuclear weapons by the end of 2016.
But if
North Korea
dedicates the light-water reactor to weapons-grade plutonium and also produces
weapons-grade uranium, it could have 28 to 39 nuclear weapons by the end of
2016, the study said.
The figure would go up to 37 to 48 nuclear weapons if
North
Korea
also secretly has a second
centrifuge plant for uranium, as some experts believe.
"As in many other cases, negotiations are the best way to alleviate the
security challenges posed by
North
Korea
's nuclear program. They
should be pursued vigorously," said the report, written by experts David
Albright and Christina Walrond.
But the study said that the
U.S.
otherwise had few options other than to try to hamper progress.
The authors said that one way to slow
North
Korea
's program was to persuade
China
--
Pyongyang
's
primary partner--to clamp down on smuggling and enforce sanctions.
North Korea
agreed in 2005 and 2007 to end its nuclear program in return for aid and
security guarantees, but agreements with
Pyongyang
are
notoriously short-lived.
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