International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels soon, following the political accord Sunday on Iran's nuclear program.
International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that
he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels
soon, following the political accord Sunday on
Iran
's
nuclear program.
"We may see currently some downwards pressure on the prices, but we're
still not there to comment on a structural impact on the markets, because the
agreement is not yet clear about the future of Iranian oil production,"
Mr. Birol told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of an
Oslo
oil
conference hosted by Statoil ASA (STO).
Crude-oil futures were lower Monday on expectations that more oil supply could
soon be available to the global oil market. Mr. Birol said he would be
surprised to see Iranian oil exports reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
"It was about 2.2 million barrels per day, and I would be surprised to see
that it would come back to those levels soon, because the agreement is not in
that direction yet. We have to wait for six months," Mr. Birol said.
The
U.S.
and
five other world powers struck a historic accord with
Iran
on
Sunday, agreeing to ease part of an economic stranglehold in exchange for steps
to cap
Tehran
's
nuclear program and ensure the Islamist government doesn't rush to develop
atomic weapons.
Iran
's oil
reserves are among the world's largest, though its exports have dropped off as
the
U.S.
and
Europe
tightened sanctions.
Iran
exported 1.5 million barrels a day in 2012, down from 2.5 million barrels a day
in 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In general, Mr. Birol did not expect oil prices to fall in the longer run, due
to high production costs, growing demand and the need of some exporters to
maintain a high price to fuel government spending.
"I would be very surprised to see $50 to $60 (a barrel oil price), because
of at least three reasons. One is the cost of production of oil in many areas,
including shale oil in the
United
States
, (which) is about $80 (a
barrel). Second, many
Middle East
countries need about $90 to
balance out their budgets. Third, demand will continue to grow very
strongly."
The International Energy Agency has assumed oil prices at around $100 a barrel
in the coming years, Mr. Birol said. He didn't rule out that the oil price
could fall briefly to between $50 and $60 a barrel, but "not for a
sustained period of time."
"If the market expects that there will be more supply, it could affect the
price," Statoil Chief Executive Helge Lund told The Wall Street Journal in
an interview Monday.
Statoil has previously had activity in
Iran
, but
recently exited the country. Mr. Lund said there were both commercial and
technical challenges to enhance Iranian exports.
"I think this will be a result of politics on the global arena, which we
are talking about now, what framework conditions the industry can get down there,
and competence and infrastructure," Mr. Lund said. "There are
commercial aspects that will decide whether oil companies invest there or
not."
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