German think tanks fear that US tariffs on car imports from Germany can seriously harm the export-led economy, especially when coupled with retaliatory measures.
US tariffs could cost the EU economy 0,5% of growth. 2019 growth projections could drop from 2.2% to 1,7% of EU GDP. In Germany, one in three jobs depends on exports.
Secondary concerns are also raised about Brexit, the Turkish and Argentinian crises.
The German think-tanks corroborate the prevailing fear in Germany. The German Confederation of industry (BDI) issued on Tuesday a warning for the deceleration of the German economy for 2018. It now expects Germany to grow by 2%, down from an estimated 2.25%.
Besides the fear of US tariffs, BDI sites other political risks, including Brexit and the rise of xenophobia.
Brussels has committed to respond in kind if tariffs are imposed on EU imports.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/think-tanks-warn-trade-wars-will-bring-recession-to-germany/