MOSCOW
-- Dmitry Medvedev,
Russia's probable next president, is a fan of English heavy-metal bands and a youthful former lawyer in a government packed with ex-KGB men from the Soviet era.
But while he may soften the Kremlin's image in the West, there is little sign the 42-year-old protege of President Vladimir Putin will alter
Russia's authoritarian direction.
Ending more than a year of intrigue, Mr. Putin announced yesterday he is backing Mr. Medvedev, a first deputy prime minister and chairman of state-controlled energy giant OAO Gazprom, as his successor. Mr. Putin's strong public support and tight control of the political system virtually guarantee Mr. Medvedev victory in the March 2 presidential election.
Mr. Medvedev helped turn Gazprom into an arm of Kremlin power, cutting off gas supplies to neighbors and squeezing foreign investors such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Gazprom has also actively bought media outlets critical of the Kremlin. All became more loyal after the takeover.
Some analysts and officials nonetheless said Mr. Medvedev isn't as anti-Western as others who had been seen as potential presidential candidates, in part because he lacks any apparent background in the security services.
"This is a signal that the Kremlin doesn't want the West to become completely disenchanted with
Russia," said Alexei Makarkin, a
Moscow political consultant and analyst at the Center for Political Technologies. "It's a signal that there will be someone you can do business with and talk to."
Russia's main stock index climbed nearly 2%. Some investors cheered the announcement, seeing a possible improvement in the business climate. They were also relieved that Mr. Putin ended the long uncertainty about succession. However, Mr. Putin, 55 years old, didn't clarify what role he will play in the new administration. He has pledged to remain a leading political figure after his term ends.
Despite being considered a liberal within Mr. Putin's inner circle, Mr. Medvedev has been an active participant as the Kremlin has built up its control over the economy, media and politics. Mr. Putin named him Gazprom's chairman of the board in 2000, and Mr. Medvedev helped push through a long-awaited lifting of limits on foreign ownership of shares. That led to a torrent of investment and helped catapult the company to the top ranks of market capitalization in the world.
Foreign investors in
Russia felt a chill after Gazprom took controlling stakes in two major projects with the help of authorities' hardball tactics. Shell ceded its control of the Sakhalin-2 project in the
Far East after a barrage of environmental and other claims from regulators threatened to shut down the $20 billion project. A similar scenario played out with BP PLC's Kovykta gas project in
Siberia. BP's Russian venture agreed to sell its stake to Gazprom after regulators threatened to revoke its license to operate.
In 2005, Gazprom began a campaign to end cut-price sales of gas to
Russia's neighbors in the former
Soviet Union. It has threatened cutoffs -- and sometimes carried out the threats briefly -- shaking faith in its reliability as a supplier and triggering accusations it was being used to pressure pro-Western governments in the region, such as
Ukraine.
Mr. Medvedev was head of Mr. Putin's administration when the Kremlin took what critics described as steps to undermine democratic institutions. They include the 2004 elimination of elections of regional governors and direct voting for members of Parliament.
In a speech to the World Economic Forum in
Davos,
Switzerland, early this year, Mr. Medvedev said, "I believe what we have in
Russia is real democracy." He added, "We are well aware that no nondemocratic state has ever become truly prosperous for one reason: freedom is better than nonfreedom."
Mr. Medvedev has little foreign-policy experience, having devoted his career to domestic issues since Mr. Putin brought him into the Kremlin. Current and former officials agreed that Mr. Medvedev backs Mr. Putin's assertive line of standing up to the West.
In a briefing with foreign reporters last month, Mr. Medvedev said the top priority for any Kremlin-backed candidate would be carrying through Mr. Putin's policies. "Continuity is essential," he said.
Announcing his candidate on state television yesterday, Mr. Putin noted that he has worked with Mr. Medvedev for the last 17 years, since they started out in the city government of what was then called
Leningrad. Mr. Putin said the choice of Mr. Medvedev would lead to "an administration that will carry out the same policies that have brought us results for the past eight years."
Politicians and analysts said Mr. Medvedev will likely offer little resistance to whatever role Mr. Putin chooses to take. "He's a soft person and a person who compromises," said Sergei Markov, a newly elected legislator from the United Russia party who has worked with Mr. Medvedev. "The No. 1 person in politics -- at least for some time -- will remain Vladimir Putin."
Mr. Medvedev didn't speak to the press yesterday beyond a few words during his meeting with Mr. Putin shown on television.
He appears to lack the political heft to rein in
Russia's security services, which have been given enormous power and prestige under Mr. Putin and lately have been angling for position in preparation for Mr. Putin's departure. Mr. Putin, a former KGB spy, "will still be seen as one of them, and will without a doubt keep his influence in this sphere," Mr. Markov said.
He noted that Mr. Medvedev, because of his youth, is likely to serve out his full, four-year presidential term, unlike some other potential candidates who were thought likely to cede power early and allow Mr. Putin to return. Others who had been mentioned as possible presidential contenders include Prime Minister Victor Zubkov, 66, and First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, 54.
The Russian constitution bars Mr. Putin from a third consecutive term, but not from running again later. Mr. Putin has said he might consider returning to the presidency in 2012.
Mr. Putin has given no indication of what role he plans to play after his term ends. Leaders of the United Russia party, whose ticket Mr. Putin helped carry to a crushing victory in Dec. 2 parliamentary elections, have called on him to play a vaguely defined role as "national leader," though Mr. Medvedev has said there is no such role in the constitution.
Before the election, Mr. Putin said a big victory for the party would give him the "moral right" to continue to ensure his policies were followed after he leaves office. Mr. Putin has packed the government and major state-owned companies with loyal allies -- many from the KGB -- in what some analysts say is an effort to ensure his influence after he steps down.
Politicians said he could wield control as chief of United Russia, which would use its dominance in Parliament to nominate a cabinet. Other possibilities include heading the Security Council, a Kremlin body with broad powers in security and foreign policy, analysts said.
A fluent English speaker, Mr. Medvedev presents a younger face than others who had been mentioned as presidential candidates. His hair is untouched by gray, and he has said he is a fan of heavy-metal groups Deep Purple, Black Sabbath and Led Zeppelin. He is married with a school-age son.
In 2005, Mr. Putin turned to Mr. Medvedev to lead a $26 billion domestic-spending push, part of the president's drive to turn the vast windfall
Russia has enjoyed from high oil prices into improved living standards. The so-called National Projects, spanning health, education, housing and agriculture, have delivered mixed results, but they helped turn Mr. Medvedev from a little-known Kremlin insider into a top official featured prominently on state television