Turkmenistan is looking to India and China as the next big markets for its gas, as it forecasts production will soar to 250 billion cubic meters annually by 2040, from 72 bcm last year, Turkmenistan 's deputy oil and gas minister Bairamgeldy Nedirov said Friday.
Speaking at the CIS Oil and Gas conference here, the official said that Turkmenistan has secured the support of India to build a gas pipeline to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Another pipeline to China is also being studied by companies there and they are ready to finance it, Nedirov added.
The country will export 200 bcm of gas in 2040, compared with 50 bcm last year, the official of the secretive state said, with exports of 125 bcm by 2015 and 140 bcm by 2020.
"All the short- and long-term targets are achievable, or almost achievable, if everything goes well", a person who monitors the country's economic goals said.
Currently, Turkmenistan sells most of its gas to Russia through a 25-year contract with Russia's gas monopoly OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) signed in 2003. The contract is for annual sales of 50 bcm of natural gas, with a possible increase to 80 bcm in the next decade.
Turkmen gas is crucial to Gazprom's ability to meet rising demand both in Russia and in the E.U., where is supplies just over a quarter of all gas consumed.
Turkmenistan also exports around 8 bcm of gas to neighboring Iran, though this past winter saw a price dispute between the countries which resulted in a temporary supply cut.
Diversifying its export routes to East Asia is seen as key to reducing its dependence on Russia.
In order to meet this fourfold expansion in exports within three decades, Steven Man, the coordinator of Eurasian energy diplomacy within the U.S. State Department, said Turkmenistan needed to open up its oil and gas industry to the world's major companies and sustain the level of investment the sector has seen in the past seven years.
"Only if new investment comes, the targets are achievable," he said, praising the "de-Sovietization" of the economy which started after the death of Saparmurat Niyazov, a reclusive dictator who ran Turkmenistan for 20 years.
"World-class companies are the answer to the challenge," of increasing oil and gas production in the country, which claims to have the second-largest hydrocarbon reserves among former Soviet Union countries after Russia, Man said.
However, Nedirov said there are no plans to open up onshore oil and gas projects to western companies for production sharing agreements or joint ventures.
Only offshore fields are currently open for PSAs in Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan 's production estimate for this year is 10.8 million tons of oil and 80 bcm of natural gas, against 9.8 million tons of oil and 72 bcm of gas last year, Nedirov said.
The true picture of Turkmenistan 's gas and oil reserves is unknown. Under Niyazov, who renamed months of the year after members of his family and banned ballet, opera and gold teeth, gas reserves figures were considered a state secret. His successor is trying to open up the country and attract international investors.
An international audit of the country's hydrocarbon reserves is being carried out by Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd., and Nedirov said the results will be presented to the government shortly.
Western Geco, a geophysical services company owned by oil services giant Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), has completed a two-dimensional seismic survey of the Turkmen part of the Caspian sea, estimating that the country has 12 billion tons of oil and about 6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas offshore, Nedirov said.