International Energy Agency executive director Nobuo Tanaka said Wednesday he sees a potential easing in oil-market fundamentals in the second half of 2008 and into 2009, before a renewed tightening after that.
Speaking at the Offshore Northern Seas conference in Stavanger, Tanaka said that while oil prices have fallen back to around $115 a barrel now from a peak of near $150 a barrel earlier in 2008, "there are plenty of risks to supply," which could drive prices back up again.
"There is the potential for stronger-than-expected non-OECD growth," he said. "That could derail an otherwise comforting short-term picture in 2009," Tanaka said.
He called oil prices at around $115-120 a barrel "too high for everybody. For poor economies without oil, it is clearly disastrous.
"Oil prices are not likely to drop significantly any time soon," he said. While he expects an easing in the market in 2009 and 2010, "we expect the spare capacity cushion to remain worryingly low towards 2013," he said.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil output is expected to peak some time in the middle of the next decade, the IEA predicts
The IEA is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's energy watchdog.