Lithuania's voters will Sunday have a chance to increase the pressure on the European Union to delay the shutdown of a Chernobyl-style nuclear plant which provides the bulk of the Baltic state's power.
Lithuania's voters will Sunday have a chance to increase the pressure on the European Union to delay the shutdown of a Chernobyl-style nuclear plant which provides the bulk of the Baltic state's power.

Alongside parliamentary polls, the country's 2.7 million voters have been called out for a referendum on extending the life of the plant at Ignalina, in eastern Lithuania, in a drive to ward off an energy shortfall until a replacement facility can be built.

Closing the Soviet-era plant by the end of 2009 was one of the conditions set down in Lithuania's E.U. membership treaty.

Lithuania joined the E.U. in 2004, 13 years after breaking free from Moscow's rule.

The plebiscite will have no binding legal value, but supporters say the goal is to strengthen Vilnius' hand as it tries to convince its 26 fellow E.U. members to let it push back the deadline.

Ignalina provides 70% of the electricity for the country's 3.4 million people.

"Unfortunately, we don't have any immediate solutions," said Gitanas Nauseda, chief economist at SEB Bank in Vilnius.

"It's going to be very hard for many Lithuanian households but also for industry," he said, noting that electricity bills could at least double in 2010, and that the country could face serious power shortages for two more years.

That could shave 3.0%-4.0% off Lithuania's already-stalling growth, while inflation could rise by a similar amount, the country's central bank has warned.

"The only possible solution is extension, until we have alternatives for supplies," said Aleksandras Abisala, a former premier who is the Social Democrat-led government's special envoy on the issue.

"We will try to convince our partners in the E.U.," he said.

"The referendum may look a little bit like government pressure, but I believe it will help. It will show it's not just the government," he said.

But E.U. officials said Vilnius was "dreaming" and that the bloc was "ready to help Lithuania, but not to breach the treaty."

Lithuania is in talks with fellow E.U. members and neighbors Latvia, Estonia and Poland on building a new plant at the Ignalina site, meant to come on stream by 2015, although experts suggest 2017-2020 is more realistic.

In addition, by 2015 Lithuania is due to be hooked up to Sweden's electricity grid via a cable under the Baltic Sea, and to Poland via a land line.

The country is also trying to upgrade a gas-fired power station to pick up some of the slack.

But that plant isn't due to be ready until 2012, and will in any case leave Lithuania totally dependent on gas from its communist-era master Russia, at a time when relations with Moscow are at their frostiest in years.

Ignalina, which opened in 1983, is the same kind of nuclear plant as Chernobyl, which caused the world's worst nuclear accident when it exploded in 1986, contaminating parts of Ukraine, where it was located, as well as Belarus and Russia, then all part of the Soviet Union, and Western Europe.

One of Ignalina's two reactors was shut down in December 2004.

The drive to keep the plant open has cross-party support.

"The country isn't at all ready to shut down the power plant," said Rolandas Paksas, leader of populist opposition Order and Justice Party.

"If the majority of the people vote 'yes', it will beef up our future government's case in talks with Brussels," he said.

Despite supporting efforts to negotiate an extension, some on the political scene are fiercely critical of the referendum, arguing that it won't help Lithuania press its case.

"To speak openly, it is stupid," said Andrius Kubilius, leader of the opposition Conservatives, adding that he was still calling for a "yes" vote, "simply not to damage Lithuania's position".

Politically independent President Valdas Adamkus has gone further, calling the referendum "dishonest and misleading to Lithuanian voters."