But that is now changing. Tajikistan is on the radar of the European Union and the United States because it has large reserves of some of the most sought-after critical minerals (CRAM) on earth at a time when China, the world’s largest CRAM producer, is banning exports to the West and both Washington and Brussels are looking for new and reliable sources of these minerals. Tajikistan is also building one of the world’s largest hydro-electric dams which looks set to become a major source of green energy for Europe. The country is home to one of the largest concentrations of glaciers in the world and, as such, is a hugely important source of water for other Central Asian states at a time when other sources are under growing pressure.
Tajikistan is a major source of antimony, required by the U.S. and Europe to make ammunition
Over the past thirty-four years since independence from the Soviet Union, Tajikistan has been largely ignored by the collective West. It remained in Moscow’s near-abroad while growing trade with and increasing investments from China. The country has also engaged more with Tehran, with which it shares a common culture including the fact that Tajikistan and Iran are the only two Farsi speaking nations on earth.
The question, therefore, is whether Washington and Brussels are coming to Dushanbe too late? Is there is a reasonable prospect for them to be able to access the CRAMs that both need or whether Tajikistan’s traditional trade and investment partners have the country “locked-up?”
The key driver of the emerging Western interest is because Tajikistan has an abundance of CRAMs especially antimony which is used to make bullets and artillery shells. Historically, the biggest supplier of antimony to the U.S. and Europe is China, accounting for 60 percent of imports in 2023. In total, China supplied 83,000 tons of the precious mineral last year, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). That is 50 percent of the total world production. But Beijing has now banned the export of antimony to the U.S. and Europe leaving both scrambling to find alternatives. Tajikistan is the second biggest producer, mining 21,000 tons last year, but selling most of the output to Russia and to China. Turkey shipped 6,000 tons and Myanmar 4,600 tons, USGS data also showed.
Having supplied so many munitions to Ukraine since 2022 and to Israel in 2024, the U.S. and Europe need to restock with basic ammunition and shells, as does Russia, and for that, all need more antimony at a time when the global supply is becoming restricted.
Tajikistan also has significant reserves of other CRAMs, in addition to being a major producer and exporter of gold and aluminium. Prompted by Western interest, the government in Dushanbe has announced plans to attract investment to develop deposits of lithium, tungsten, nickel and other CRAMs which are in increasing demand for electric vehicles, batteries, military equipment and other technologies. The Tajik authorities said last year that in the country are “800 deposits of minerals, rare and precious metals, including 7 which are unique to Tajikistan, and other rare minerals.”
The United States needs a new source of uranium
The country also has significant reserves of uranium, although it is unclear how much there is because the government has declared this a state secret. Only in 2008 did it lift a restriction on foreign companies’ involvement in the country’s uranium industry. Estimates vary from a very low 20,000 tons to as much as 14 percent of total global reserves. Most likely both sides of that assumption are exaggerated. But it is clear there are significant reserves, and these are increasingly important to the U.S. and the EU as both plan to reduce imports from Russia.
But Tajikistan has, or can have, both uranium production and enriching capacity. It hosts a Soviet-era enrichment facility that it says it plans to modernize and to bring back online. The Vostochnyy Rare Metal Industrial Association (Vostokredmet), previously the Leninabad Mining and Chemical Combine, was built in the 1940s and was the first Soviet plant to produce yellowcake using uranium from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. If the plant can be put back into full operation, it would mean that Tajikistan would have the only such processing plant in Central Asia and could provide processing for Kazakhstan, possibly also uranium from Kyrgyzstan, to allow it export product without the need to use Russian facilities.
Cooperation with its neighbors has started in this area. In 2024, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan decided to jointly explore uranium and rare earth metals production. Last year, Tajik Rare Metals (Tajredmet) and Kazakhstan’s National Atomic Company Kazatomprom signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at expanding cooperation in the field of mining and processing of uranium and rare earth metals, during an official visit of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Tajikistan. The memorandum provides for a strategic partnership in the mining industry of both countries. The companies plan to “work together on the implementation of initiatives including the exploration, production, and processing of uranium and other rare earth metals, research and development work, the introduction of innovative technologies, as well as personnel training.”
Because of its topography, Tajikistan has enormous hydropower (HPP) potential, one of the greenest sources of electricity available. The EU wants to access this as part of its efforts to reach emission reduction targets. At the COP29 event, held in November in Baku, the EU signed a Green-Energy deal with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to supply green electricity from Central Asia to Eastern Europe via the Caucasus and a Black Sea cable. Tajikistan, once it completes the construction of the Rogun Dam, will provide electricity to that project.
The Rogun Dam is the most ambitious hydroelectric project in the world
The Rogun Dam is one of the most ambitious and challenging projects in the world. It is the highest HPP in the world at 335 metres (1,100 feet) and is being constructed on Vakhsh River – part of the water feed for the Amu Darya (aka the Oxus) – in southern Tajikistan. It is not only one of the most difficult HPP projects in the world, but also the longest still under construction. The dam was first proposed in 1959, and a technical scheme was developed in 1965. Construction started in 1976 but was abandoned in 1993 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the three decades since, only preliminary work has been carried out until construction was finally suspended in August 2012. The project was again restarted in 2016, with the plant’s first (of six planned) generating unit commissioned in November 2018 and the second in September 2019. These two units are currently producing approximately 600 MW or 15 percent of the final planned capacity of 3,500 MW, or 17.1 TWh, of electrical power per year.
Construction works at the dam of Rogun hydropower plant. Photo: PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN
The government has reportedly spent $3 billion to finance the first turbines, with the third turbine expected online later this year. The additional funding required to fully complete the project by 2035 is estimated at $6.4 billion. The government is negotiating a financing package with a consortium of multilateral and bilateral partners to cover about 50 percent of this cost, with the other half expected to come from the government’s own budget and from project revenue, although that is estimated at only $1.1 billion between now and 2035.
The World Bank, which had suspended funding for the project after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan in 2021, has recently agreed (in December) to resume funding. It is assumed that one reason for the decision to resume funding is because of the growing importance of Tajikistan’s CRAM to western governments and the search for clean energy in Europe. Part of the World Bank’s lending conditions is that 60 percent of the electricity produced must be sent to neighboring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan where it can also be part of the Green Energy Corridor supply to Europe. The remainder of the electricity produced will be sent to Afghanistan and Pakistan as part of the World Bank’s Central Asia-South Asia project (CASA-1000). Funding for this project was also suspended after August 2021, but financing is again available and, reportedly, construction work in Afghanistan has resumed.
The growing interest to engage with Tajikistan in Washington and Brussels is clear. What is less clear is whether President Rahmon is willing, or even able to reciprocate. Emomali Rahmon, 72, is the second-longest serving of the post-Soviet leaders. He has been a lot more comfortable engaging with the Russian and Chinese leaderships over the past three decades. Both have become major investors in the country with Russia providing most of the country’s fuel imports and border security. It has a permanent garrison of several thousand troops keeping the Taliban sponsored East Turkestan Movement at bay on the Afghanistan side of the border.
China is the biggest investor in the country, having funded major mining and infrastructure projects over the past two decades. The country also acts as a buffer between the China’s Muslim regions (in the western part of China) with Afghanistan. President Xi Jinping, in a rare visit to Dushanbe in July last year, announced a boost to diplomatic relations with its western neighbor and promised to defend the “territorial integrity” of Tajikistan. He told President Rahmon China will continue to unswervingly promote friendly and mutually beneficial cooperation with Tajikistan” and to “firmly support Tajikistan’s efforts to safeguard national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”
But, despite the strong presence of Moscow, Beijing and Tehran in the country, there is an opportunity for Washington and Brussels to engage with Dushanbe. There is evidence that President Rahmon is frustrated with the lack of major investment from Russia and the fact that China only invests in projects which suit its economic interest.
At a meeting of the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in October 2022, President Rahmon directly accused Moscow of disrespecting his country and of not following up with promises of investment and trade expansion. Since then both China and Russia have stepped up engagement and declared more investment plans. But as is the case with the other Central Asian states, Tajikistan is now definitely looking to diversify its political and investment relationships and the west’s need for CRAM and green electricity provides President Rahmon with that opportunity.
The timing may also suit Washington and Brussels. President Rahmon now needs to be a lot more serious about addressing domestic economic and social reforms, especially as migrant workers – remittance from which account for over one-third of GDP – are much less welcome in Russia after the Crocus City terrorist attack in Moscow last spring which left 140 people dead. Moscow has charged Tajik nationals with the crime and has since started to tighten migration rules and procedures for workers from the Central Asian state. Over 50,000 Tajik workers have been expelled from Russia since that incident.
Because of CRAMs, especially antimony and uranium, and the green energy potential from the Rogun Dam, Tajikistan has now become too important for the U.S. and the EU to ignore. President Rahmon appears ready to engage and he needs the investment and trade receipts if he is to maintain domestic stability and ensure a smooth leadership passage for his son. The major question for the Trump administration is whether Moscow, Beijing and, increasingly Tehran, are too well established in Tajikistan and will be able to ensure there is no room for western competition?
source: neglobal.eu