Developing countries will need billions to curb carbon pollution and
cope with its consequences and who will foot the bill has emerged as a
key hurdle at U.N. climate talks which wind down in Bonn Friday.
The five-day negotiating session veered to an end with many
participants expressing frustration at the lack of progress only four
months ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference slated to deliver a
planet-saving climate treaty.
The best that can be expected from the December meeting, say
some, is an "interim agreement" that lays out the basic framework of a
post-Kyoto accord, with hard numbers to be filled over the course of
2010. The provisions of the Kyoto Protocol run out in 2012.
Efforts this week to whittle down an unwieldy 200-page
document into a draft treaty have been stymied by a deep rift between
rich and poor nations. Disagreement over how deeply wealthy economies
must slash their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, and whether
commitments by developing nations should be binding, have helped
deadlock the process.
The more than 180 nations engaged in talks cannot even agree on a procedure for drafting the text.
"There really isn't a very strong climate of confidence," said France's climate ambassador, Brice Lalonde.
But the most critical point of blockage today, say many participants, is money.
"The fact that there are no proposals for financing on the
table is preventing progress," said Jose Romero, a negotiator from
Switzerland. "This is the big issue."
The U.N. has estimated that by 2020 the cost of mitigating
and adapting to climate change will rise to $200 billion and $100
billion a year.
Friday, a bloc of least developed countries and small island
states said rich nations should earmark 1% of gross domestic product,
some $400 billion annually, to help poor countries cope.
Top U.N. climate official Yvo de Boer has called for a first
pledge in Copenhagen of $10 billion to help poor nations map out "solid
strategies to limit the growth of their emissions."
But even that has caused wealthy nations - dealing with
stalled economies and concerned about the money will be managed - to
balk.
"So far, only less than $1 billion has been made available
to address urgent needs for adaptation," Dessima Williams, U.N.
ambassador for Grenada said at a webcast press conference in Bonn,
speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States.
It is not just the amount that matters, but the framework, de Boer told AFP as the negotiating session got underway.
"The thing that I find most worrying today is that there is
little or no clarity on how financial resources are going to be
mobilised to allow developing countries to engage," he said.
With the U.N. process bogged down, several participants are
quietly dialing down their expectations for Copenhagen, even if they
remain optimistic in the long run.
"The general impression is that in Copenhagen we are not
going to have the complete and perfect accord," Lalonde told AFP. "We
are moving toward the idea that we may wind up with a political accord,
one that will continue to evolve."
"The best likely outcome in Copenhagen may be an interim agreement nailing down the basic architecture," agreed Diringer.
But if the crafting of a global treaty spills into 2010, it should not necessarily be seen as a setback.
"Far from a failure, that would actually be a huge step forward," he said.