Poland faces no threat to the stability of its gas supply even if
ongoing negotiations with Russia fail, Maciej Wozniak, a top energy
adviser to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, said.
Poland needs to buy more natural gas from 2010 onwards.
Currently it is in negotiations with Russian energy giant OAO Gazprom
(OGZPY). "Our priority in talks with Gazprom is to buy more gas, but if
this doesn't happen let's remember that Gazprom is not the only company
selling gas in Europe," Wozniak told Dow Jones Newswires.
Warsaw is trying to get Gazprom to increase its supplies and
cover a shortage caused by elimination of a Russian-Ukrainian
intermediary that, until the end of last year, delivered 2.5 billion
cubic meters of gas annually.
Experts say the country needs an additional 1 bcm of gas
from 2010 to replace supplies from Ukraine and meet slightly lower
demand.
In June, Gazprom signed a three-month contract with Polish
gas monopoly PGNiG (PGN.WA) to supply 1 bcm of gas, enabling Poland to
replenish its underground storage facilities, which can store 1.6 bcm
of gas.
But Gazprom made any contract for the additional supplies
with PGNiG conditional on the governments of Poland and Russia signing
an overarching gas agreement. This makes negotiations more complex and
politicized.
"We're not very happy that these are talks on the government
level, rather than between the companies," Wozniak said. "In Western
Europe," he said, "Gazprom enters into purely commercial agreements
with other companies."
Having storage tanks full improves Poland's position. Stored
gas allowed Poland to avoid cuts in supplies to industrial users last
winter, despite seriously reduced Russian deliveries due to a
Russia-Ukraine spat.
"In early 2010 our position could be similar to that from
early 2009...Last winter proved we can manage the situation without any
damage," Wozniak said.
An alternative to Gazprom could also involve using spare
capacity in the pipeline linking Russia with Germany and running via
Poland to buy from a European company.
"We're getting ready to buy gas. The way it would flow to
Poland and a potential seller [if talks with Gazprom fail] will remain
our secret for now," Wozniak said.
After several rounds of inter-government meetings,
negotiations with Russia are at a standstill, with Russia pushing for a
lowering of the transit fees that it has to pay for sending its gas via
Poland to Western Europe.
But more than transit fees are at stake. Over the last two
months Poland has probably done more to diversify its energy supply
routes than over the previous decade.
In June, PGNiG signed a 20-year deal with a Qatar supplier
to buy liquified natural gas to be delivered to a terminal on the
Baltic Sea which should be operational by mid-2014. The tender to
select a contractor to build the terminal was opened last week.
With initial capacity to deliver 5 bcm of gas per year, the
terminal will be able to meet almost one third of Poland's projected
gas demand. Topped up with local gas production, it will radically
change the current situation in which Russia accounts for 60% of
Poland's gas supply.
Poland has agreed to extend its current gas import contract
with Russia beyond 2022 to ensure supply stability, Wozniak said,
adding that there are no plans to drop Russia from its supply
portfolio.
"Our strategy assumes that we don't resign from Russian gas
- it remains one of the sources of supply," he said. "But we're aiming
to have 30%-40% of supplies from Russia, 30% from our own output and
the rest from other sources, such as LNG and possibly Norway."
The next round of talks with Russia is scheduled for Aug 24.
Polish officials had hoped that a deal would be reached in
time to be inked by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin when he
visits Poland Sep. 1 to commemorate the start of World War II.
Wozniak remains optimistic but says a plan B is being already implemented.
"My interpretation is that the standstill is a negotiation
tactic, although, just in case, we're updating our crisis management
procedures," he said.